Road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby: Gotham Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $300,900 Gotham Stakes, one mile, Aqueduct, March 9, 2019

(50 Derby qualifying points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)

Winner: Haikal, by Daaher
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
Owner: Shadwell Stable
Beyer Speed Figure: 95

HAIKAL scored his third straight victory in this race and earned enough points to guarantee him a spot in the Kentucky Derby field on May 4, but he and the rest of the top four finishers in this one-turn mile race look to me like they are going to be better suited around one turn than two.

Haikal has yet to go two turns, and he has the style of a classic late-running sprinter. He got a dream set up in this race, as there was a white-hot pace of 22.36 seconds for the opening quarter and 44.42 seconds for the half – a :22.06 second quarter! – that sapped the front-runners and played into his late-running style through a final quarter in 26.40 seconds. It looks like he’ll make his first start around two turns in his final Derby prep, the Wood Memorial. At the moment, I’m selling, not buying.

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In this race, Haikal broke well but then was outrun, per usual, in the early going. He was last while just outside FAMILY BIZ with a half-mile to go, saved ground on the far turn, hugged the rail into the lane, was angled to the middle of the track midway through the stretch and closed best to prevail in a made-to-order race for him. The official chart footnote says he was “four wide into the stretch.” That’s fiction.

MIND CONTROL, who finished second, is usually on or near the pace but was outrun in the early going here, which probably was of benefit. He was inside down the backstretch as the leaders sped away, got a dream run along the rail on the far turn, got through inside of MUCH BETTER at midstretch, struggled to get past Much Better and INSTAGRAND in deep stretch and then got nailed late. He could not have had a better trip and did nothing to dissuade me from the opinion I’ve had of him for months, that he’s best suited around one turn and is not going to thrive going longer.

Instagrand, who was third, was sent away from the gate but then conceded the lead to KNICKS GO and Much Better, settled behind the swift frontrunners down the backstretch, and was sent between Knicks Go and NOT THAT BRADY into the far turn to go after Much Better. He finally got past Knicks Go midway on the turn while coming under an aggressive ride, was even with Mind Control a quarter-mile out, went outside Much Better for the stretch run and was the widest of a three-horse spread with a furlong to go, had every chance to win but weakened late. He couldn’t out-finish Mind Control, let alone stave off the onrushing Haikal, and barely got past Much Better. Considering it was his first start in almost seven months, he had to need the race. But he, too, doesn’t give off the appearance in his races – nor with his blocky physique – that two turns is going to move him up. At least not by May 4.

Much Better, who was fourth, has displayed wicked speed in his two starts now with blinkers. He was second to Knicks Go through the opening furlong but then took the lead and tore through that torrid second quarter as if the race were six furlongs. He had a sizeable lead with three furlongs to go, was challenged by Mind Control from the inside and Instagrand from the outside at midstretch, and battled on courageously to be nosed out for third. He ran a terrific race considering the pace and should be a major player in races such as the Woody Stephens on Belmont Day and Allen Jerkens on Travers Day – both seven furlongs – if realistically managed in coming months.

Family Biz, who was fifth, was far back while inside Haikal down the backstretch, couldn’t keep up with Haikal when the winner began his advance, continued to save ground and came into the lane in the two path, and never got close to the top four. He should have done better if he was to be thought of this class considering the set-up he got.

TIKHVIN FLEW, who was sixth, broke sharply, was on Instagrand’s hip the opening quarter, dropped farther back and was even with Mind Control heading into the far turn, tried to rally in the three path on the far turn, came into the stretch in the four path, and never really got involved. He had no apparent excuse.

Knicks Go, who was seventh, was sent along to lead early, conceded the lead to Much Better down the backside, was asked to go after the leader three furlongs out but was out of gas soon thereafter, drifted out while fading through the field and was sympathetically ridden through the lane. He has not been the same since being wheeled back on short rest for the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall after his big effort finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Not That Brady, who finished last of eight, was a bit sluggish the initial strides from the gate but was hustled to take up residence outside Instagrand down the backstretch. He went into the far turn three paths wide, began to weaken midway on the turn while in the four path, drifted out into the lane and was allowed to coast home. Colleague David Grening had written before the race that he was being treated for a quarter crack, and he ran like a horse that had something bothering him.