Road to the 2019 Derby: Tampa Bay Derby analysis

Grade 2, $355,000 Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 miles, Tampa Bay Downs, March 9, 2019

(50 Derby qualifying points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)

Winner: Tacitus, by Tapit

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Owner: Juddmonte Farms

Beyer Speed Figure: 93

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders with comments from Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker

In the weeks leading up to the launch of Derby Watch last month, every time trainer Bill Mott was contacted about plans for his 3-year-olds Country House, Hidden Scroll, and Mucho, he’d also be sure to mention TACITUS, who had not raced since beating maidens in November. Mott was tipping his hand. In his first start in almost four months, and his first using Lasix, Tacitus earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure while rallying from off the pace to capture this race and put himself squarely in the Derby picture.

While the figure wasn’t dazzling, it was perfectly solid and something from which to build. Most important, though, Tacitus finished off the race well in a year where (see the Gotham) horses who look like they really want to go two turns are at a premium. Tacitus also benefitted from a hot pace, a welcome change for his connections considering what had happened to stablemate Hidden Scroll one week earlier in the Fountain of Youth, when he set fast fractions and tired as the favorite.

In this race, Tacitus broke a half a step slowly but got in gear to head into the first turn mid-pack while three paths wide. He dropped down heading to the far turn to save ground, was under a vigorous ride three furlongs out and initially didn’t advance, took hold and split horses in the two path while nearing the top of the lane, then got through inside of ZENDEN in the final furlong to prevail. He continued with a strong gallop-out.

OUTSHINE, who finished second, went into the first turn racing in the clear, about two to three paths wide, while in a perfect spot behind two leaders who were setting a blazing pace (22.79, 45.85). He benefitted from that gorgeous trip all the way to the far turn, was asked to go after the leaders midway on the turn, got carried to about the four path while tackling Zenden and WELL DEFINED entering the lane. He was a bit late to change leads, took longer than expected to get past Zenden, and could not keep up with the winner late. He’ll never get a better trip than he got here.

WIN WIN WIN, who was third, got squeezed back between rivals in the early going, was toward the latter half of the field in the three path around the first turn, then angled farther out heading into the backstretch to be on the hip of Tacitus. He never could get over and was forced to rally four wide on the far turn, got fanned five wide into the lane, was under aggressive left-landed punishment in upper stretch, and finished steadily get third, losing by less than the ground he lost on the turns. This was his first race around two turns after four sprints.

Zenden, who was fourth, came away swiftly from his outside stall and took the lead while getting to the rail, was shadowed by Well Defined beginning seven furlongs out, and turned back an aggressive challenge from Well Defined nearing the quarter pole. After putting away that rival, he did not change leads and tired in the final sixteenth, but he ran a remarkable race considering the fractions he carved out. Watch for him on the turn-back, or if he winds up in a two-turn race without other pace.

SIR WINSTON, who was fifth, was rated early and saved ground while toward the back half of the field around the first turn, could not keep up heading to the far turn and dropped back to last, seemed disinterested three furlongs out, was angled out for the stretch drive, then took hold in the lane, and finished fastest of all. Perhaps his late run was a function of pace, or perhaps he’s just a green goofball. But he showed some flashes of ability here.

DUNPH, who finished sixth, was between ADMIRE and Tacitus around the first turn, raced three paths wide on the far turn but failed to make up any appreciable ground, had Tacitus roar past him from the inside in upper stretch, then went evenly the rest of the way. Meh.

Admire, who was seventh, used his rail draw to save ground around the first turn while mid-pack, continued to hug the rail the rest of the way, had the winner come around him nearing the top of the lane, and never made an impact. Considering the hot pace and how nice a trip he had, he should have done better.

Well Defined, who was eighth, broke well, was outrun by Zenden into the first turn and took up a stalking position outside Zenden from there to the far turn. He cut into Zenden’s margin going around the far turn, but was turned back heading into the lane and steadily faded while swapping over to his wrong lead near the wire, likely from exhaustion. As noted in the Sam Davis analysis, when he gets the lead, he’s very brave. When he doesn’t, he’s in trouble.

THE RIGHT PATH, who was ninth, raced toward the rear of the pack around the first turn while three paths wide, made up some ground while three paths wide on the far turn, gradually angled to the rail when heading into the lane, then flattened out.

DREAM MAKER, who was 10th, had to check slightly leaving the gate and wound up last into the first turn while in the three path. He split horses down the backstretch and made up a bit of ground heading into the far turn, but came under a ride and had nothing to offer while appearing intimidated while racing inside in a very disappointing performance.

LORD DRAGON, who finished last of 11, raced inside of Dream Maker at the back of the pack into the first turn, remained far back throughout, made a very mild rally in the three path on the far turn, but was done by upper stretch.