Every single horse in North America and Japan with the qualifying points to make the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field on May 6 is as of Wednesday still on track to race in the Kentucky Derby. Of the top 20 point earners, only Brave Emperor, who topped the European Road to the Derby, has been ruled out of consideration. And that means horses who in a more typical year would comfortably be in the field will be sweating things out over the next few weeks. Right now, the floor to make the Derby field is 45 qualifying points, a higher total than in the nine years of Kentucky Derbies run in May since Churchill Downs Inc. instituted the current points system. The 2020 Derby can’t be considered in the same light since it was run during the heart of the Covid-19 pandemic on Sept. 5. The 2019 race had the previous high points cutoff at 40, but the other seven years, the floor ranged from 10 (2013 and 2021) up to 30. Horses who a couple months ago appeared to be sitting pretty might find themselves standing in their stalls the first Saturday in May. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2023: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more Brad Cox has four horses right now with enough points to run in the Derby. Instant Coffee isn’t one of them. He won the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Jan. 21, bringing his points total to 32, and he looked a sure thing to make the gate. But he finished sixth, one place outside a scoring position, trying to rally into a crawling pace in the Louisiana Derby, and now would have to leapfrog seven horses to make the Derby. “I wish the Lecomte was worth more,” said Cox. “Things didn’t work out for him.” Cox got two horses into the field on April 8, when Hit Show finished second by a nose in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and Verifyng was second by a neck in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. Both horses have returned to Cox’s barn at Churchill Downs and are expected to be ridden in the Derby by the jockeys aboard them last weekend, Tyler Gaffalione on Verifying and Manny Franco on Hit Show. Angel of Empire, Flavien Prat booked to ride, according to Cox, is scheduled to have his first work this weekend since he won the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn on April 1. Angel of Empire won that race by more than four lengths and captured the Risen Star at Fair Grounds by one length. Cox’s fourth Derby horse is Jace’s Road, most recently a distant second in the Louisiana Derby. He has 45 points and would be ridden by Florent Geroux – if he makes the race. Reincarnate also has 45 points but beats Jace’s Road on earnings, and if Disarm, who has 40 points, were to finish in the top three Saturday at Keeneland in the Lexington Stakes, he would displace Jace’s Road. The Lexington’s points are distributed 20-8-6-4-2 to the top five finishers, and only Disarm has a chance to use the race as a springboard to the Derby. If the Derby were run this Saturday, Cyclone Mischief wouldn’t get to start despite finishing third in the Florida Derby and the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, old standbys on the Derby trail. The Japanese horse Mandarin Hero, who got a 100 Beyer Speed Figure finishing second by a nose to Practical Move in the Santa Anita Derby, also is on the outside looking in, as is Skinner, a half-length behind Mandarin Hero finishing third in the Santa Anita Derby after a third in the San Felipe at Santa Anita. Major Dude, whose only dirt win came in his five-furlong debut last summer, also is a 40-point earner by virtue of his second in the Jeff Ruby at Turfway, and his connections have said he’ll run if he can. King Russell’s connections paid a $6,000 late nomination fee to make him Derby eligible, but his 40 points from finishing a soundly beaten second in the Arkansas Derby might also be insufficient. How did we get here? In a good way, actually. This year, there have been nearly no injuries or illnesses knocking qualified horses out of contention. Among horses that were on the way to qualifying for the race at some point in 2023, only two of real note, Litigate and Geaux Rocket Ride, have suffered compromising setbacks. Litigate was taken out of training after winning the Sam Davis Stakes on Feb. 20 at Tampa Bay Downs and earning 20 points. Geaux Rocket Ride got 20 points finishing second in the San Felipe, but was scratched sick from the Santa Anita Derby. Newgate was injured after winning the Robert Lewis Stakes on Feb. 4, but didn’t earn any points in the Lewis because Derby-banned Bob Baffert still trained him. :: Bet the races on DRF Bets! Sign up with code WINNING to get a $250 Deposit Match, $10 Free Bet, and FREE DRF Formulator.  Additionally, the number of points distributed increased this year, with finishers in prep races earning points through fifth place, rather than fourth in previous years. As a result, there was an increase of almost 18 percent in points distributed, so mathematically it would stand to reason the qualifying cutoff would be higher. But, even without the added points this year, the cutoff still would stand at 40, and 18 horses still would have 45 or more points. Things could change before May 6, but this is highly unusual. In 2022, eight qualified horses weren’t entered in the Derby, and in 2021 the number was a whopping 28. The last horse in, Brooklyn Strong, appeared to have no chance of running three weeks before the race. The only comparable year to this one was 2019, when every qualified horses was entered in the race. Omaha Beach, who topped the points standings that year, was scratched after being entered, as was Haikal, and only 19 ran. Not only have all main players stayed healthy the last 3 1/2 months, two horses from Japan are assured spots in the field with Mandarin Hero just a couple slots away from qualifying. Derma Sotogake got 100 points romping in the UAE Derby, and while the Japan-based Continuar earned just 30 for his third-place finish there, he is assured a place in the field through the Japan Road to the Derby. Blazing Sevens, who has 46 points and was third in the Blue Glass last Saturday, is the only horse whose connections have overtly expressed any hesitation about actually running. If he comes out, Skinner gets in. But still, there’s likely to be some clearly qualified horses sitting out the greatest two minutes in sports. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.