Peck: Look for value among closers in Preakness
The 141st running of the Preakness Stakes features the one-two (and ninth-place) finishers from the Kentucky Derby, but from a pace standpoint they are not at all similar. The Derby featured one clear one-dimensional speed in Danzing Candy, with a couple of stalkers and a dozen or so closers. The Preakness, of course, is loaded with speed, and that makes taking a short price on Nyquist dicey regardless of his credentials.
It may seem silly to debate whether a horse that's expected to be 3-5 on the board offers value, but prohibitive favorites are sometimes overlays – in short fields, with a decided figure edge, with a serious pace advantage, etc. None of that applies to Nyquist on Saturday. Obviously, he's capable of winning this race easily, but at that price he's not worth a win bet.
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Exaggerator has been installed as the 3-1 clear second choice on the line. That seems more than fair, considering the way he closed in the Derby and the expected race flow in the Preakness. The problem is, he may not be that high, especially considering the forecast for rain as he clearly relishes a wet track and the public will likely overbet him if the rains do cause a sloppy strip. I'd consider him a play at 5-2, but 2-1 might be a little light, if he gets that low.
Stradivari is the “now” horse for some, coming into the Preakness off a second consecutive blowout score, this one against allowance company at Keeneland. He wasn't asked for run at all in the lane in either race, including in that last one, but the quality of the field he beat there wasn't anything near what he faces in the Preakness. More importantly, perhaps, he does his best running when close to the pace, and the fractions promise to be quick. He's also lightly raced, making his stakes debut here, and there's some chance he'll be even less than the 8-1 listed on the morning line as bettors look for alternatives to the top pair. Under the circumstances, he's an underlay as the third choice in the betting, and I'll play against him in all pools.
Collected is the fourth choice on the morning line at 10-1, and for a horse trained by Bob Baffert in a Triple Crown race that seems like a bargain on the surface. But considering the fact that he's meeting much better, his Beyer Speed Figures are light compared with the top pair, and he may be too close to a quick pace, it's probably about where he should be. His running style and relatively short price compared with closers, who are expected to benefit from the race flow, makes others more appealing at better odds.
The other seven entrants are 20-1 and up. Again, with the pace scenario seemingly favoring the ralliers, using front-runners with average speed figures – thinking Uncle Lino, Awesome Speed, Laoban, and Abding Star – is unwise, at any price, as a pace meltdown is likely and they will probably have trouble lasting even for a small share.
But longshots with a late kick – Cherry Wine, Lani, and Fellowship – are certainly worth considering for exotics as all will be healthy prices, all fit the race flow, and all are capable of passing speeds late for a check if the pace is indeed quick and contested.