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Churchill Downs

No clear favorite in latest Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool

Matt Hegarty|Feb 16, 2026
Paladin01.2.14.26.LHJRHP.jpg
Louis Hodges Jr. Paladin won the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds over the weekend, but he closed at 9-1, higher than his 8-1 morning-line figure when the pool opened.

Bettors made the “all others” entry in the fourth Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool the 9-2 favorite over 37 individual entries when the pool closed on Sunday night, according to a list of odds distributed by the pool’s administrator, Churchill Downs.

With roughly 2 1/2 months to go until the May 2 Derby and the early favorite Ted Noffey off the trail due to injury, there is still no clear favorite. The morning-line favorite in the fourth Future Wager Pool, Paladin, won the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds over the weekend, but he closed at 9-1, higher than his 8-1 morning-line figure when the pool opened.

The winners of two other weekend Derby preps, Al Haram in the Saudi Derby and Pavlovian in the Sunland Derby, were not offered as individual entries in the pool.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2026: Top contenders, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

Other entries gaining favor in the pool were Nearly, the winner of the Holy Bull Stakes on Jan. 31, who closed at 10-1; Canaletto, a recent maiden winner from the barn of Chad Brown, who closed at 15-1; and Renegade, the winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay on Feb. 7, who closed at 16-1.

Two horses, Mesquite and Thunderously, had to be scratched from the pool while wagering was open. No refunds are offered in the Future Wager.

Total win wagering for the fourth pool was $330,926, with another $89,593 bet in the exacta pool, according to Churchill, a 1.9 percent increase over the fourth Future Wager pool last year.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.

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