New shooters bringing knives to a gunfight
BALTIMORE – These horses go out to the wise guys in the crowd, the handicappers out there turning over even the plainest gray rocks in the field, reasoning, unlikely as it seems, that buried treasure might lie beneath.
No horseman with a talented 3-year-old comes into the year thinking, “Geez, if all goes really well, this horse might take me to the Preakness!”
The disease is called Derby Fever, not Preakness Flu.
You see?
There’s good reason why horses who didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby but start in the Preakness – “new shooters” has become the near-formal term – rarely make an impact here in Baltimore.
That has become especially true since full 20-horse Derby fields became standard operating procedure, sweeping up, like a massive vacuum, nearly every 3-year-old with even the wispiest hint of elite talent.
:: Preakness: Contenders and news
Three new shooters, however, have won the Preakness in this young century: Red Bullet in 2000, Bernardini in 2006, and Rachel Alexandra in 2009. Those are the exceptions.
The last 11 years, Derby starters have compiled a Preakness record of 57-9-6-6, while the new shooters have gone 66-2-4-4. Since Rachel Alexandra beat Derby winner Mine That Bird in the 2009 Preakness, horses coming out of the Derby and into the Preakness have run, year by year:
2014: 1,2,4
2013: 1,2,3,4,5,7
2012: 1,2,3,6,9,10
2011: 1,2,4,6,13
2010: 1,3,5,6,8
That trend does not look likely to be reversed in 2015. Materiality had early Derby trouble and finished sixth at Churchill, while Frosted raced wide and came from far off a moderate tempo, doing well to finish fourth. They are skipping the Preakness. But everyone else who ran a lick in the Derby – American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund, and Danzig Moon – all arrived at Pimlico on Wednesday.
The Derby horses likely have a major edge, and the new shooters probably are firing blanks, but here’s a look at the three of them entered in the 2015 Preakness.
TRAINER: Arnaud Delacour
LAST RACE: 1st in Lexington Stakes
It’s been a long time since the winner of the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland has raced in the Preakness, and, in fact, no horse who even started in the Lexington has gone directly on to the Preakness since 2008. That year, there were two: Racecar Rhapsody finished fourth in both races, while Riley Tucker was third in the Lexington and 12th in the Preakness.
In 2006, for some reason, three horses went Lexington-Preakness: Hemingway’s Key managed a distant third in the Preakness after finishing eighth in the Lexington; Greeley’s Legacy was fifth at Pimlico after running fourth in Kentucky; and Like Now, the Lexington runner-up, was seventh in the Preakness.
Divining Rod easily is the most qualified of the new shooters to make an impact this year. He has never been worse than third in his five starts, was a close second to Ocean Knight in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, and comes into this start off the best race of his career. Used on the pace in the Tampa Bay Derby, he rated kindly in the Lexington and won by three lengths, which is the good news.
The bad news: He had a perfect trip. The horse in second, Donworth, was coming off a mere maiden win, and third-place Fame and Power might be the sixth-best 3-year-old trained by Bob Baffert. Baffert’s best two, American Pharoah and Dortmund, will be in the starting gate Saturday.
TRAINER: Jose Corrales
LAST RACE: 1st in Federico Tesio
It’s become something of a Preakness ritual. A horse comes out of the local Preakness “prep” race, the Federico Tesio Stakes, and takes a ceremonial drumming on the third Saturday in May.
Magic Weisner was second in the 2002 Tesio, took a big forward move, and finished second at 45-1 behind War Emblem in the Preakness. In 2008, Icabad Crane rounded out the Preakness trifecta at 22-1. But those are the outliers: Over the last decade, the other Tesio horses in the Preakness finished eighth, eighth, 10th, 10th, and 12th.
Enter Bodhisattva, fresh off a game score here April 18 in the Tesio. Game but slow. Bodhisattva set a slow pace, fended off a challenge, and went on to a 1 1/2-length victory. He ran the race of his life, but his winning Beyer Speed Figure, 91, puts him a couple of cuts below the big three in the Derby. Though, to be fair, Magic Weisner also got a 91 in the Tesio before jumping up to a 105 in the Preakness. Bodhisattva, though, already has raced 11 times in his career. Quite likely, the Tesio was his moment in the sun this spring.
TRAINER: Dallas Stewart
LAST RACE: 1st in April 23 Keeneland maiden race
Tale of Verve is set to become the first horse to jump from a maiden win into the Preakness since Luv Gov finished eighth here in 2009. Luv Gov at least had a catchy name and a decent Beyer, 94, from his maiden win, enough for super-aggressive Triple Crown trainer D. Wayne Lukas to give him a shot. Dallas Stewart, Tale of Verve’s trainer, is a product of the Lukas school, a former assistant in that operation, but Tale of Verve has not even a good speed figure to point him out as a Triple Crown candidate. His connections also entered him in the Derby, with Tale of Verve failing to draw in from the also-eligible list.
Tale of Verve got a mere 72 Beyer for a grinding Keeneland maiden win, the colt’s first triumph in six starts, though to his credit, that race was at the Preakness’s 1 3/16-mile distance, making Tale of Verve the only distance winner in the field.
But coming out of long races is exactly the wrong profile for a Preakness new shooter, and the group of such horses in the last decade who easily have done the best in the Triple Crown’s middle jewel were those coming out of one-turn, one-mile races. Bernardini, the 2006 winner, exited the one-mile Withers, and since 2004, the 12 Preakness starters whose last race came at a mile have gotten a win, two seconds, a third, and two fourths.
Now that is a bunch of new shooters with actual ammunition. But put that information in a storage locker and keep your powder dry this year, since the three new shooters Saturday are highly unlikely to go boom.