Mike Welsch's Preakness analysis

As was the case with the Kentucky Derby, take the parimutuel element out of play, and it’s almost impossible to look past NYQUIST as the most likely winner once again Saturday. The undefeated juvenile champion has done nothing wrong to this point and has been brilliantly managed during his 3-year-old campaign, with the thought of having plenty left in the tank for another big effort in Baltimore and, should all go as expected Saturday, three weeks down the road in the Belmont. But since they will allow wagering on the Preakness, it’s hard to settle on 3-5 or perhaps even less on Nyquist, just as it was hard to take 2-1 in the 20-horse Derby field.

With that in mind, the best alternative for those seeking some value may be COLLECTED. The improving son of City Zip exits a big win in the Lexington, then turned in the best work I saw from any 3-year-old in the two weeks leading up to the Derby when going seven furlongs as easy as he pleased May 5 at Churchill Downs before galloping out another sharp quarter-mile without any prodding whatsoever. He followed that move with an even quicker work eight days later, giving every indication that he’s coming up to his best effort yet.

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Whether that will be good enough to beat Nyquist remains the key question.

EXAGGERATOR ran huge in defeat in the Derby, and his connections have to be smiling at the prospect of a wet track Saturday at Pimlico. Exaggerator has been frustrated by Nyquist four times, but I fully expect to see him give another good effort against his nemesis in Round 5.

STRADIVARI is loaded with talent and looked extremely sharp working in company with the older Stanford when shading 1:00 for five-eighths over the Belmont training track last Friday. He galloped out on even terms with Stanford into and around the turn. But his inexperience makes the Preakness a Herculean task as he goes up against this seasoned bunch in only his fourth career start.