Louisville natives Brad Cox, Norm Casse send out favorites in Kentucky Oaks

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- The Kentucky Oaks is traditionally considered Louisville’s day at the races, with many businesses and schools in the River City closing down to celebrate the event. It’s fitting, then, that a pair of Louisville natives train the top three choices on the morning line for Friday’s 149th edition of the Grade 1, $1.25 million race at Churchill Downs – Brad Cox with Wet Paint and Botanical leading his trio of entrants, and Norm Casse with third choice Southlawn.

“I’m born and raised here in Louisville, so other than the Kentucky Derby, the most important race is the Kentucky Oaks,” said Casse, who is saddling his first Oaks runner. “So this is very important and it would be extremely meaningful.”

The Oaks, with a full field of 14 3-year-old fillies, is the 11th of 13 races on a card that begins at 10:30 a.m. Six stakes precede the filly classic, including the Grade 1, $750,000 La Troienne, which includes 2022 Oaks winner Secret Oath, and the Grade 2, $600,000 Alysheba, in which 2022 Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike makes his season debut. The Oaks and supporting stakes will be broadcast on USA Network with coverage beginning at 1 p.m.

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Although Wet Paint, 5-2 on Mike Battaglia’s morning line, is a deserving favorite, she seems far from a sure thing in an Oaks that saw several upsets in the lead-up to the race. Of six preps offering 100 points to the winner on the field qualifying system used by Churchill Downs, only two were won by favorites, with Wet Paint taking the Grade 3 Fantasy at Oaklawn and Faiza, not eligible for the Oaks, taking the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks. In the other races, Defining Purpose returned $42.68 in winning the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland; Promiseher America $55 in the Grade 3 Gazelle at Aqueduct; Affirmative Lady $19 in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks; and Southlawn $17.40 in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks.

“There’s some nice fillies around,” said Brendan Walsh, who trains Pretty Mischievous. “I think the Fair Grounds had a good division, and obviously Oaklawn – Wet Paint’s a very nice filly. At the end of the day, it’s always very competitive.”

Late-running Wet Paint is the horse who seems to have the fewest questions surrounding her. Wet Paint, one of two homebreds in the race for Godolphin along with Pretty Mischievous, has never lost on dirt. After taking the Martha Washington and Grade 3 Honeybee on wet tracks at Oaklawn, she handled a fast track in the Fantasy. All three races were at 1 1/16 miles.

Cox, who is seeking his third Oaks victory, has no qualms about her post position, 7, or stretching her out to 1 1/8 miles.

“Post doesn’t mean a lot with her, I don’t think,” he said. “She’s versatile in regards to what she’ll run on. She shows up. She’s got the ability and the turn of foot to close into a soft pace and, obviously, if it’s a hot pace, she’s going to kick on. And I’m excited about running her a mile and an eighth, more ground. She’s never seen this much.”

Southlawn has blossomed as a 3-year-old since undergoing a myectomy, a minor surgical procedure to clear up a breathing issue, and since being partnered with Reylu Gutierrez at Fair Grounds. Southlawn has shown a versatile style, winning an allowance race by eight lengths after leading for most of the race, and then pouncing on Pretty Mischievous to win the Fair Grounds Oaks by 3 1/4 lengths.

Casse said he’s fine with allowing Southlawn to find her own rhythm in the Kentucky Oaks, whether she is near the front or the back.

Cox, who sent out Oaks winners Monomoy Girl (2018) and Shedaresthedevil (2020), also saddles the streaking Botanical and The Alys Look, third in the Fair Grounds Oaks. Botanical owns the field’s top Beyer Speed Figures, with a 91 earned in the Cincinnati Trophy and a 90 in the Bourbonette Oaks. Both those wins came on Turfway’s Tapeta, and Cox said he’s confident she’ll run well on dirt. Owners LNJ Foxwoods and Clearsky Farms told him they were prepared to reroute to Friday’s Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes on turf if the filly did not train forwardly on the main track.

“I really like her works the last few weeks,” Cox said. “I think she’s doing fantastic.”

Botanical, in post 6, drew inside of other likely speed in Flying Connection, Defining Purpose, and Dorth Vader, who are in 10, 11, and 12, respectively.

Having some pace to sit off would suit Grade 2 winner Pretty Mischievous, who landed post 14. Walsh adds blinkers to Pretty Mischievious and hopes the filly will focus on tracking horses ahead of her.

“I think she ran really well – at the head of the stretch, it looked like she was going to win,” he said of her effort against Southlawn. “She’s got a very high cruising speed, and things come easy to her, and I think [maybe] she took her foot off the gas a little bit. They weren’t hanging around at the Fair Grounds. … It did set up for a closer really well.

“A normal Oaks scenario, she’ll have plenty pace in front of her. You hope that somebody would take it a little farther, and that would help her.”

And Tell Me Nolies, who has chased unbeaten Faiza home in her last two, will need to recapture her Grade 1-winning juvenile form, as does Eclipse Award champion Wonder Wheel, trained by Norm Casse’s father, Mark. Wonder Wheel is winless in two starts this year, but captured a pair of races at Churchill last year.

Defining Purpose was handily beaten by Wet Paint on off tracks at Oaklawn in the Martha Washington and Honeybee, then won the Grade 1 Ashland on a fast track at Keeneland April 7. Showers are forecast for Louisville Friday evening, and if they arrive early, Defining Purpose might be at a disadvantage on a wet track.

Trainer Kenny McPeek said Defining Purpose benefited from having six weeks between the Honeybee and Ashland. She now has four weeks between races.

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“I think during the winter, she might have got just a little over the top down there at Oaklawn, and got a couple of tracks that she didn’t like in the mud,” said McPeek, a Kentucky-based trainer who has been second in the Oaks three times. “Regrouped, and brought her to Kentucky, and kept her in a basic routine, and we spaced that last race really well.”

Mimi Kakushi has made all her starts in Dubai, and has not raced since winning the Group 3 UAE Oaks in February.

Todd Pletcher, seeking a fourth Oaks win, runs Gazelle runner-up Gambling Girl. He also has Julia Shining as the second also-eligible for the race. Taxed, Julia Shining, and Hoosier Philly are the also-eligibles, with scratch time 9 a.m. Friday.

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