Justify may have won the Kentucky Derby last year, but it was Instilled Regard who won the hearts of bettors fortunate enough to cash on the Derby superfecta. His rally to grab fourth at odds of 85-1 behind popular choices Justify, Good Magic, and Audible led to a $19,618.20 payoff for a $1 wager, exponentially higher than the $141.40 trifecta mutuel for a $1 bet. I wish I had liked Instilled Regard in last year’s race instead of viewing him as a toss after going unplaced in his final two Derby preps, the Risen Star and Santa Anita Derby. Not that it would have done much good – I struck out altogether in the race. Still, his finish provided valuable insight that even one longshot as far down as fourth place can dramatically fatten Derby payoffs. So, lesson learned, this week I went on the hunt for Derby longshots who might again sneak into the gimmicks. Sifting through charts, past performances, and watching replays, I settled on three such types, all listed at odds of 30-1 or higher by Mike Watchmaker of Daily Racing Form in this week’s Derby Watch. In order of preference, here they are, along with Watchmaker’s prices: ◗ Spinoff, 30-1: Although outfinished by By My Standards in the Louisiana Derby, he performed well to finish second, beaten three-quarters of a length. Jostled a bit leaving the gate, he was hung three wide around both turns, while the winner was able to save ground. Having made just four starts, he gives the appearance of a horse who is still improving. This is illustrated in his Beyer Speed Figures (60-75-84-95), demonstrating steady development. It may continue. His recent works at Palm Beach Downs for trainer Todd Pletcher have been fast and smooth, topped by a five-furlong breeze April 19. Though he and workmate Wooderson received identical 59.99-second official times, he outworked his company while traveling under less urging and galloped out a couple lengths in front. No doubt, he needs a forward move to contend in the Derby. This race, top to bottom, is lengths better than the Louisiana Derby field, but at least he is giving off signs of having the potential to jump up. He also has favorable race spacing, with the Derby coming six weeks after the Louisiana Derby. That timing suits Pletcher’s style. ◗ Country House, 50-1: If one holds the belief that the Arkansas Derby was among the better Derby preps this year – and I fall into that camp, holding one-two finishers Omaha Beach and Improbable in high regard – then this late-running third-place finisher seems worth consideration for use underneath in the Derby gimmicks. He acts like a horse who should relish the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles, and horses with his strong-finishing style fit the profile of longshots who have often snuck into the Derby exotics. In addition to Instilled Regard’s rallying fourth last year, Lookin At Lee lit up the board with a closing runner-up finish at 33-1 from the clouds in 2017, a few years after Commanding Curve did similar at 37-1 in 2014. All these positives noted, he has been a busy campaigner this year, particularly over the past month and a half in a quest to secure the qualifying points to make the Kentucky Derby. The Derby will mark his third start in six weeks, following a fourth in the March 23 Louisiana Derby and the Arkansas Derby on April 13. :: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders with comments from Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker ◗ Cutting Humor, 30-1: Although his lone stakes victory was merely a Grade 3, the Sunland Derby, this year’s race seemed an above-average renewal. Among the horses Cutting Humor defeated was Anothertwistafate, who would return to run a troubled second in a swiftly run Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and now is being aimed at the Preakness. Cutting Humor’s margin of victory in the Sunland Derby was just a neck, but his level of superiority was likely greater than that. He seemed to lay up upon making the lead in early stretch, only to regain focus once Anothertwistafate made a race of it in the final furlong. Like stablemate Spinoff, he is fresh after a month and a half off and has been training swiftly at Palm Beach Downs for Pletcher, recording a couple of bullet drills, including one in 59.58 seconds on April 19 when in company.