King: New shooters figure to add pace to Preakness

Among the challenges of the Triple Crown are the changing dynamics of each race. The tracks are all different, as are the distances, and so, too, the composition of the fields.

Of the 11 horses entered in Saturday’s Preakness, eight are new shooters – horses that passed the Derby to wait for the second leg of the Triple Crown. Although most are unlikely winners, seemingly outclassed against the likes of Nyquist and Exaggerator, their collective presence could alter how the race is run.

With the exception of closers Cherry Wine and Fellowship, most of these newcomers either want to race on the lead or within close proximity of the pace, which could make for a crowded run into the first turn and potentially lead to a quick pace.

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Laoban, who blazed the way in the Blue Grass before fading to fourth, seems the fastest of the front-runners, though the removal of blinkers Saturday could lessen that aggressiveness. If he runs as he has in his last two starts, he looks like the pacesetter.

Longhsot Abiding Star knows only one way to win – on the lead. So he figures to be sent, but whether he can keep up with these horses, even under early encouragement, remains to be seen. Not having the class of others, expect him to start his retreat six furlongs into the 1 3/16-mile Preakness.

Many of the other Preakness entrants have styles similar to Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist in that they aren’t need-the-lead types but are horses that race prominently early. That includes Uncle Vino, who has been first or second at the first call in his four routes, and Collected, who took the Lexington by pushing the pace.

Although Awesome Speed and Stradivari have laid close in recent starts, don’t be surprised if they are rated and play stalk. Awesome Speed went to the lead by default in a slow-paced Federico Tesio last out, and Stradivari, drawn on the far outside, might be better served by being tucked in behind the speed, rather than risk getting hung wide throughout.

With so many horses having a similar style of running, this could make for a congested run for the opening quarter-mile, and in turn, lead to quick fractions.

Most likely to benefit from all this pace and sit in the clear away from all this speed are Cherry Wine, Exaggerator, Fellowship, and Lani.

Based on pace analysis, Derby runner-up Exaggerator is the horse most likely to benefit from the makeup of the race, though as Nyquist displayed in the winning the Derby, he is a horse that can chase quick splits and keep going.

Longshot Cherry Wine, aside from Exaggerator, might be the next-best closer with a chance to rally from behind fast splits and grab a minor award in the gimmicks.