King: Go overlay hunting on Travers program

There are days when I find a horse in the past performances whom I love and, barring some unforeseen betting action that kills his price, am ready and eager to back.

Travers Day at Saratoga just isn’t one of those days. Most races there Saturday are so deep and competitive, particularly some of the stakes, that I’m instead taking a watch-the-tote approach, planning to back the overlays I see in the betting.

What follows is an examination of the three stakes I view as the most closely matched on Saturday – the Ballerina, King’s Bishop, and Travers – along with what I would consider minimum odds in order to back them. Bear in mind that these prices represent what I deem to be fair odds, but most horses will fall short of these target prices because of the takeout.

Up first is the seven-furlong Ballerina, which drew a field of 10 fillies and mares, with the most probable winner to my eyes being Carina Mia. But being untested against older horses, she is a tricky evaluation, meaning I can’t accept a short price. Unless the race is depleted by scratches, she would need to be 4-1 or higher for me to support her, and that seems unlikely.

The fillies I view as having the next-best chances are Paulassilverlining (fair odds of 5-1), Wavell Avenue (6-1), Sheer Drama (6-1), Haveyougoneaway (8-1), and By the Moon (10-1).

:: Travers Stakes: Get PPs for Saturday’s card at Saratoga

Only Honorable Miss winner Haveyougoneaway offers a better price on the track morning line, sitting at 10-1, than where I have her pegged at 8-1, though I will keep my eye on all the others as well in case the wagering goes in unexpected directions.

The next race, the King’s Bishop, is even more wide open, with 13 horses entered and probably eight or more having a respectable chance. Here, I’m encouraged that my top three selections – Mohaymen, Fish Trappe Road, and Tom’s Ready – are all higher prices on the morning line than what I consider to be fitting odds on them.

Mohaymen is 4-1 on my line, compared to 5-1 on the morning line; Fish Trappe Road is 6-1 with me, compared to 8-1 on the line; and Tom’s Ready is also 6-1 by my evaluation, compared to 12-1 on the morning line.

Hopefully, one or more will go off as overlays, and I can bet the value.

I view promising allowance winners Summer Revolution, Drefong, and Jazzy Times all as 8-1 shots in the King’s Bishop. Due to either flashy connections or lofty speed figures, it would seem improbable that any go off in excess of that 8-1 price, though predicting how the public will bet can be as difficult as picking the winner of a race, if not more so.

Lastly among the three stakes I like best for their competitiveness, we come to the Travers, the 11th race.

Exaggerator is the most likely winner, but having caught a dream pace setup in winning the Haskell, as well as sloppy conditions that he relished, he could regress in a Travers that will be run on a fast track if the weather forecast of sunny skies is correct.

I view Exaggerator as a 7-2 shot against 13 rivals on a dry surface, and at 3-1 odds on the morning line, somehow I doubt such a well-known horse will drift into overlay territory.

After Exaggerator, there seems to be little separating the field. Destin and Gun Runner are 8-1 shots from my perspective, with Governor Malibu at 10-1, American Freedom and Arrogate at 12-1 apiece, and Creator and Gift Box both 15-1 chances.

Destin, Gun Runner, and Governor Malibu are all a tick higher on the morning line than where I spotted them, so my wager likely will fall among this trio.

Destin was somewhat disappointing in the Jim Dandy Stakes, finishing an even-paced third, but his overall form has been very good since adding blinkers. Gun Runner has a history of outrunning his odds on fast tracks, and he gets a pass for a failure in a sloppy Haskell. And Governor Malibu has improved noticeably in recent months, managing a fourth despite trouble in the Belmont Stakes and rallying to be second in a slow-paced Jim Dandy.

With more speed in the Travers lineup than in the Jim Dandy, I’m anticipating a moderate-to-fast pace.