King: Finding an alternative to chalk in Fountain of Youth

Tucked away at Payson Park this winter, Hidden Scroll was overlooked by the betting public when unveiled Jan. 26 on Pegasus Day at Gulfstream, starting at 8-1 and running like a horse who should have been odds-on. Sent to the lead over a sloppy track, he hit the front early down the backstretch in a one-mile race and extended his lead at every call, winning by 14 lengths.

The race quickly brought back memories of Justify, who burst on the scene last winter and went on to become the 13th winner of the Triple Crown. But he also brought to my mind Coliseum, who this winter was perceived by some to be the next great thing after a blowout maiden win, then crashed and burned in the Sham and San Vicente at Santa Anita.

Whether Hidden Scroll is something special, a flameout, or something in between should be answered Saturday in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. At a short price, I’d rather not ask that question with my betting dollars. Instead, I will try an alternative – more on which one a little later.

Hidden Scroll is 9-5 on the morning line, and it would not surprise me to see him drop below that price, even against arguably the best 3-year-old stakes field this year. Consider that just a couple weeks after his maiden victory this colt was pounded to 7-1 odds in the second pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, trailing only champion Game Winner at 5-1 among the individual betting interests.

If anything, I would say Hidden Scroll’s popularity has only grown since, with more on board after watching online video of him easily outworking a maiden-winning Tapit 3-year-old colt named Tacitus at Payson on Feb. 22.

That move, and the ease of his maiden win, leads me to believe this is a quality horse. However, the Fountain of Youth is a tall order.

Not even Justify had this tough a test second out. He was able to land in an allowance that was essentially a schooling race for him before he ventured into the Santa Anita Derby.

Hidden Scroll’s trainer, Bill Mott, did not appear to have such an option locally. The last route allowance on dirt for 3-year-olds at Gulfstream was Feb. 9, which would have left Hidden Scroll with little time to recover from his maiden win.

According to DRF’s Formulator database, this marks just the third time over the past five years that Mott has run a 3-year-old in a graded stakes race after a first-out maiden victory. The others were Tiz Shea D, who ran second in the 2015 Gotham, and Beckoning, seventh in the Florida Oaks last March at Tampa Bay Downs.

He is not alone among trainers in having few starts in this category. Though trainers will routinely try a 2-year-old in graded company after a debut win, the move is far less typical as horses grow older.

Granted, Hidden Scroll may not be your typical horse. He could be something special, but there is little value in backing that assumption.

So, if Hidden Scroll is bet down, as expected, who goes off as an overlay? Probably not Vekoma, who is unbeaten in two starts and a graded stakes winner to boot. As the second favorite on the morning line at 7-2, he will likely draw considerable action from those opting against Hidden Scroll.

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So, my value-based choice is Signalman. Unlike Hidden Scroll, Vekoma, and another Fountain of Youth entrant, Global Campaign, he has some losses among his past performances that take some of the shine off him.

He also might be discounted a bit by bettors who view him as having capitalized on favorable trips in recent starts. That assessment is valid to a degree. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. was able to save ground while riding him to a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and in winning the Kentucky Jockey Club. Such smooth journeys are rare among horses who come from off the pace.

In my view, however, the horse deserves credit for being positional enough to allow Hernandez to place him in those positions.

A greater concern to me is the largely disappointing results of horses exiting the Juvenile and Kentucky Jockey Club, which could hint that those races might not have been as good in 2018 as in prior years.

Still, at 9-2 on the morning line and possibly drifting up, he seemingly offers enough mutuel upside for the risk.