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In this series DRF handicapper/linemaker David Aragona provides his opinion of what constitutes fair win value for each runner in a weekend stakes race. The goal of this series is to bypass standard ordinal selections, instead developing price-based opinions around every horse in the field for the purpose of informing sound wagering decisions.
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After a seemingly quiet fortnight, the Kentucky Derby field underwent significant changes over the 48 hours leading up to the race. Four of the original 23 horses entered have been scratched – Practical Move, Lord Miles, Continuar, and Skinner – and questions began to surface Thursday about the status of favored Forte.
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In the last two years, horses based in Japan have captured some of the biggest international prizes in Thoroughbred racing. Now, Japan has Thoroughbred racing's most prestigious prize – the Kentucky Derby – on its radar. There are three Japan-based horses entered, though only two are likely to make the starting gate at Churchill Downs.
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When Forte had his final gallop Friday morning for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, he was wearing a three-quarter shoe on his right front foot. A piece of the shoe was cut off at the upper part of the inside heel. “Take a little pressure off the heel,” trainer Todd Pletcher said. “Something we commonly do.”
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Skinner, the third-place finisher in the Santa Anita Derby, has been scratched from the Kentucky Derby due to an elevated temperature, according to the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission.
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Continuar will be scratched from Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, it was announced Thursday night by his connections.
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Churchill Downs has banned the trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. for an “indefinite period,” citing the sudden deaths of two of his horses over the past five days at the track. The announcement came 30 minutes after Kentucky stewards said that Joseph had agreed to scratch all of the horses he had entered at Churchill, including Lord Miles, who was entered in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.
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A busy and very eventful morning on the Kentucky Derby/Oaks watch Thursday at Churchill Downs with arguably the most impressive training session of the morning saved for last when Skinner came out at his usual time, shortly after 9:00 a.m., to turn in an eye-catching gallop over the freshly harrowed strip.
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Practical Move, winner of the Santa Anita Derby and a major player in the Kentucky Derby, will have to scratch out of the race due to a temperature, trainer Tim Yakteen said Thursday afternoon.
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Given the events of the past week at Churchill Downs, the sight of two horses running loose without a rider – one a Kentucky Derby starter, one a Kentucky Oaks hopeful – made for some heart-palpitating moments Thursday morning during training hours. Thankfully, neither Derby runner Verifying nor Oaks longshot And Tell Me Nolies were hurt.
