In this series DRF handicapper/linemaker David Aragona provides his opinion of what constitutes fair win value for each runner in a weekend stakes race. The goal of this series is to bypass standard ordinal selections, instead developing price-based opinions around every horse in the field for the purpose of informing sound wagering decisions. Update at 11:30 AM: This piece has been updated to account for the recent scratch of Forte, as well as the previously announced scratches of Practical Move, Lord Miles, Continuar, and Skinner. It has been a wild 48 hours in which we have seen five horses scratched from the Kentucky Derby, including some major contenders. While I was not initially predicting that any of the scratched horses would offer spectacular value, their removal from the race – especially in the case for Forte – certainly changes the expected value outlook for the rest of the field. Since this exercise is all about staying nimble enough to adjust for the actual prices, let’s revise some of those previous opinions. The grid below displays the current live odds for the race, as of 11:04 a.m. on Saturday and my expected value on each horse. Fair odds represent my view of each horse’s actual chances of winning. With the scratch of the morning-line favorite, Angel of Empire (#14) now becomes the most likely winner on my fair odds line at odds of 9-2, which represents an 18 percent chance of success in the Kentucky Derby. Unfortunately, with Forte out, Angel of Empire’s current odds sit at 9-2, so the value opportunity on this horse is quickly disappearing. I had made him my top pick in this year’s Kentucky Derby because I believe he’s proven to possess attributes that lead to success in this kind of race, and he seems like a horse who still is in the midst of an upward trajectory. My enthusiasm for making a strong win bet on Angel of Empire has been dampened, but he is still a horse that I want to use very prominently in exotics along with others who may offer better value. I also am keeping an open mind around using Derma Sotogake (#17) in my wagers. I expect the Japanese colt to run well, and it seems possible that he might be a fair price as of Saturday morning. I also want to reassess fellow Japanese contender Mandarin Hero (#22) after his late admission into the field. I have to imagine that his current odds of 21-1 will drop by post time as other bettors also reassess the race. Yet he still figures to offer strong value at anything above 12-1, and I will definitely upgrade him in my wagers. I had initially been very interested in Two Phil’s (#3), but he’s been taking more money than I had expected in the win pool. Perhaps that is due to his name, since there is typically plenty of unsophisticated money in the Derby win pool. At his current odds of 7-1, I would have to downgrade him. Finally, let’s revisit those horses who are bigger prices on my fair odds line. One of the striking aspects of the current betting on this Derby is the price ceiling on the longshots. As of 11:04 a.m., no horse is higher than 32-1 odds, and that phenomenon figures to hold true right through to post time. This atypically narrow odds spread generates an opportunity, since my fair odds line makes it clear that a few horses in this odds range have far better chance of success than others. Hit Show (#1) has been getting somewhat ignored due to his rail draw, but I don’t expect it to be a significant detriment and he has the ability and upside to get a piece of this. At his current odds, he offers value. Sun Thunder (#13) is another who is among the longest shots in the race. He looks a little slow on paper, but has endured a couple of unlucky trips recently. Like that runner, King Russell (#23) is another who fits fits the profile of an improving closer who can get a piece of this. I would key all three of these longshots in trifectas or superfectas with the logical runners that I prefer.