Early odds for Kentucky Derby
Early odds for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs.
Early odds for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs.
Hardened horseplayers know that to survive long term in this game, you need to get value on your plays. That's all of your plays, including the Kentucky Derby. On the other hand, the casual sports fan simply wants to know who will win the race and isn't really interested in which horses are the best value plays. Hence the plight of the public handicapper, who tries to balance the two approaches.

There is no avoiding the idea that Jerry Hollendorfer has the organization and the clients to win a Kentucky Derby at some point. After all, he is a Hall of Famer with more than 7,000 wins, three champions, and major stakes victories all over the map. It might even happen as soon as Saturday in the 143rd Kentucky Derby with Battle of Midway.

A couple of key players here this weekend, Irish War Cry and Paradise Woods, put on a pretty good show for railbirds Thursday at Churchill Downs during what was the final regular morning of training for the 3-year-olds competing in Friday's Kentucky Oaks and Saturday's Kentucky Derby.
TimeformUS handicapper David Aragona analyzes the 2017 Kentucky Derby.

After a tumultuous prep season in which no horse asserted himself as the clear front-runner of the division, a full field will line up for the 143rd Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs with more questions emanating from this group than a bunch of children in a preschool class.

About 1,900 horses reside on the backstretch at Churchill Downs. Every morning, they are groomed, tacked up, and led to the racetrack, where they jog, gallop, or breeze, and then return to their stable.

Trainer Graham Motion and jockey Rajiv Maragh have been close friends through good times and bad, and on Saturday they team up with Irish War Cry in the Kentucky Derby.

The road to the Kentucky Derby is rarely, if ever, a straight one. The only thing that varies from year to year in this aspect of the journey is how many unexpected detours arise, and how deep into the weeds those detours take us.

Carl Nafzger and Ian Wilkes have forged a relationship that has brought them great personal joy and professional success, including a pair of Kentucky Derby wins. Wilkes will try to win his first Derby as head trainer with McCraken on Saturday.