Peck: Finding value in the Kentucky Derby field

Hardened horseplayers know that to survive long term in this game, you need to get value on your plays. That's all of your plays, including the Kentucky Derby. On the other hand, the casual sports fan simply wants to know who will win the race and isn't really interested in which horses are the best value plays. Hence the plight of the public handicapper, who tries to balance the two approaches.

"Value" is among the most overused and misunderstood terms in handicapping, as many players think any horse above a certain price offers "value.” So, what constitutes value? There are several ways of looking at it, and there is a large degree of subjectivity involved. But generally, a horse whose odds are greater than his actual chance of winning the race is a value play. If a horse has a 20 percent chance of winning a given race – or can be expected to win the race once every five times it is run – then any price above 4-1 can be considered value. The higher the price above that, the better the value.

Obviously, the horse's chance of winning isn't a percentage that's easily derived. It's up to the player to figure out, and his skill is cultivated through years of experience, with the final determination often more a "feel" as opposed to a hard and fast mathematical equation. Individual opinions will vary about acceptable odds on a given horse – sometimes wildly – but that is what makes the market work.

The Kentucky Derby will feature a field of 20 that is very competitive, with very few horses who seem hopelessly overmatched. The race also lacks a standout favorite, with Classic Empire installed as the tepid 4-1 morning-line choice. He figures to be at least that price, and perhaps as high as 5-1, with Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry also likely to vie for favoritism. That trio could well be the only three runners in the field offering single-digit odds, with a glut of horses likely to fall between 15-1 and 30-1.

Win odds alone cannot be used to determine value – after all, an even-money favorite can be considered a value play if his chances of winning a given race are 80 percent. But in a race like the Kentucky Derby, which features so many variables, 19 rivals, and a distance the horse has never raced, true odds of winning the race are usually at least double digits, unless you're looking at a clear-cut public betting choice with a discernible edge on paper. And that's not the case on Saturday.

Sure, there will be backers who think 4-1 on Classic Empire is value, perhaps thinking that his chances of winning are more along the lines of a 3-1 shot. I am not among them (I also think he'll be north of 4-1). Again, that's what makes horse racing. There are those who will think 30-1 on Lookin At Lee is a steal because, well, he's 30-1. But long odds do not constitute value on their own. If his true chances of winning the race are around 2 percent, you'd need about 50-1 to make that a value bet.

So, who is the right "value play?" What makes the Kentucky Derby a unique betting race is that unlike most races run every day around the country, there are several runners offering prices that could be considered "value." Clearly, it ultimately comes down to whom you like, and whom you don't like. My top pick, J Boys Echo, is listed at 20-1 on the morning line, and that – to me, a handicapper who thinks he's a legitimate contender as opposed to a marginal outsider – is good value.

Irap, who is listed at the same price, is a horse I'm against, as he comes off a Blue Grass win where he held a pace advantage. So, even at 20-1, I'll pass, as I feel his chances of winning the race are less than 5 percent. If Classic Empire is truly 4-1, that's a price that may be a little short of value, and even though he could be considered the most likely winner, it's not a good play at that price.

A horse I didn't list in my top four selections – J Boys Echo, Gormley, Classic Empire, and State of Honor – who seems to be an overlay is Tapwrit. If you're able to forgive his dull effort in the Blue Grass, where he was well off the leaders in a race lacking pace, he does fit based on his prior Beyer Speed Figures. At 20-1 on the morning line, Tapwrit is one to consider for all slots, as that price makes him an appealing play not only to win but to pump up the exotics.

Practical Joke is another who fits that bill at 20-1, for the same reasons. And while State of Honor isn't a horse I'd consider for a strong win bet, he does have a chance to hang on for a share at a huge price, as he could be the controlling speed.