Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 6, 2024
?q=100)
WHO’S HOT
There’s a new kid in town. Deterministic, off nearly seven months, scored a decisive comeback victory in the Grace 3 Gotham Stakes on March 2 at Aqueduct to emerge as the newest addition to Derby Watch. Deterministic, 2 for 2, opens as 12-1 third choice by linemaker David Aragona.
Deterministic defeated Just a Touch by two lengths in the Gotham, a one-turn mile that was run over a sloppy track. Just a Touch, also making just his second career start, ran well. Aragona lowered his price from 30-1 to 20-1.
Conquest Warrior won an entry-level allowance route March 1 Gulfstream Park with an 84 Beyer Speed Figure over modest competition. On the other hand, Conquest Warrior was visually impressive late and is likely headed to the Florida Derby against Fierceness, Dornoch, and Hades. Aragona lowered Conquest Warrior’s Derby Watch price from 25-1 to 20-1.
:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2024: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more
WHO’S NOT
Locked is snakebit. The top-ranked Derby Watch lister a month ago, he subsequently missed two starts. Locked skipped his scheduled comeback Feb. 10 after spiking a fever; he scratched March 2 from the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park when trainer Todd Pletcher did not like how he galloped. Unraced since finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Locked drifts to 20-1.
Speak Easy, who might have wired the Fountain of Youth, also scratched. Speak Easy got loose in the pre-race warm-up, sustained a cut, and will miss at least a week of training. The Kentucky Derby is a reach for Speak Easy, a 100 Beyer winner of his only start. Speak Easy drops from Derby Watch.
Dornoch won the scratch-decimated Fountain of Youth with an 88 Beyer, which ties for the lowest figure by a Fountain of Youth winner. Dornoch’s price ticks upward, from 12-1 to 15-1.
ON THE BUBBLE
El Grande O finished third in the Gotham; his 30-point total ranks him seventh on the Kentucky Derby points list. His Derby status hinges on the Wood Memorial on April 6 at Aqueduct. Le Dom Bro, who was not an original nominee to the Triple Crown, earned 25 points finishing second in the Fountain of Youth.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.