Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 4, 2026
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WHO’S HOT
Commandment and Chief Wallabee threw it down in the Fountain of Youth and put their names atop the list of Derby contenders.
Commandment, who edged Chief Wallabee by a neck in the Fountain of Youth, won for the third straight time and both horses earned triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures (101-100). Commandment and Chief Wallabee, the latter making just his second career start in the Fountain of Youth, are now co-second choices on David Aragona’s line at 8-1. A rematch is likely in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, and won’t that be fun if it happens?
Class President was a game winner over Silent Tactic in the Grade 2 Rebel. Class President, in his first start around two turns, was passed by Southwest winner Silent Tactic in the stretch, but came back on and beat him. Plans for Class President are undecided while Silent Tactic likely runs back in Arkansas Derby.
WHO’S NOT
Solitude Dude and Napoleon Solo, third and fifth, respectively, in the Fountain of Youth, were dropped from the Top 20 this week. Solitude Dude, a creditable third, looks destined to shorten up to one turn. Napoleon Solo, who probably needed the race since he hadn’t run since October, will likely get another try in a Derby prep, though it hasn’t been finalized where that will come.
:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2026: Top contenders, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more
Litmus Test and Blackout Time, third and fourth in the Rebel, remained in the Derby Top 20, but will obviously have to do better in their second starts of the year. Both are targeting the Arkansas Derby.
ON THE BUBBLE
Cherokee Nation on Feb. 27, in his sixth career start, won a one-mile maiden race by 10 lengths at Santa Anita, earning a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. He will get his chance to make the Kentucky Derby in the Santa Anita Derby.
Danon Bourbon will try to qualify for the Derby via the Japan Road, which concludes with the Fukuryu Stakes on March 28. He is 2 for 2 with two visually impressive victories at nine furlongs.
It remains to be seen how the war in Iran impacts Dubai World Cup night in Meydan on March 28, when the UAE Derby is scheduled to be run.
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