Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 3, 2021

WHO’S HOT

There are four newcomers to this week’s Derby Watch top 20 – Collaborate and Spielberg, both of whom ran well last Saturday – and Highly Motivated and The Great One, both scheduled to run in stakes races this Saturday. Collaborate, a romping maiden winner, Southwest runner-up Spielberg, and Highly Motivated, who is scheduled to run in the Gotham, are all 30-1 on the line set by Marty McGee of Daily Racing Form for the May 1 Kentucky Derby. The Great One, scheduled for the San Felipe, is 50-1. The unbeaten Essential Quality solidified his position as the Derby favorite with his win in the Southwest and is now 7-2 after being 9-2 last week. Greatest Honour is now the close second choice at 4-1, half his price of a week ago, after winning the Fountain of Youth. The top two are both sons of Tapit, who has three of the top 20 on the list. Into Mischief has four of his progeny on the list.

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WHO’S NOT

Owing to injuries or poor performance, four horses – Fire At Will, Jackie’s Warrior, Prime Factor, and Senor Buscador – were dropped. Life Is Good, the second choice last week at 5-1, moved to 6-1 owing to the victories by Essential Quality and Greatest Honour, but he is on serve in the San Felipe. Owing to the price drops on the top two horses, McGee also raised the odds a bit on Caddo River, Concert Tour, Hot Rod Charlie, Medina Spirit, Risk Taking, Roman Centurian, and Rombauer to balance his line.

ON THE BUBBLE

Several were under consideration and just missed the cut, including Battaglia winner Hush of a Storm, Pasadena winner Rock Your World, allowance winners Known Agenda and Soup and Sandwich, and Dream Shake, who heads straight into stakes action in the San Felipe following his win in a loaded maiden race. There are three points-scoring races on Saturday – the Gotham, San Felipe, and Tampa Bay Derby – so there is the potential for many hopes to be raised and dashed by the time next week’s list comes out.