Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 29, 2023
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WHO’S HOT
Kingsbarns, Derma Sotogake, and Two Phil’s rocket up the Derby Watch chart following decisive graded stakes victories last week in which each earned 100 qualifying points. Kingsbarns shook loose at Fair Grounds and wired the Louisiana Derby by more than three lengths. Derby Watch linemaker David Aragona lowered unbeaten Kingsbarns to 12-1 fourth choice. Derma Sotogake crushed at Meydan, where the Japanese colt won the UAE Derby by more than five lengths. A first-time Derby Watch lister, he opens at 15-1. Derma Sotogake will try to become the first Dubai shipper to hit the board in the Kentucky Derby; 18 have tried. Two Phil’s, already a graded stakes winner on dirt, switched to synthetic at Turfway Park and won the Jeff Ruby Steaks by more than five lengths with a 101 Beyer, highest by a 3-year-old going a route this season. Aragona lowered the price on Two Phil’s to 15-1. Disarm and Continuar are first-time Derby Watch listers. Disarm opens at 30-1 after a rail-skimming runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby. Continuar inherits a Kentucky Derby berth via the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series. Continuar, who finished a distant third in the UAE Derby, opens at 50-1. That price seems like an underlay.
:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2023: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more
WHO’S NOT
Instant Coffee and Sun Thunder drop from Derby Watch after finishing off the board in the Louisiana Derby. The release of two-time graded winner Instant Coffee, previously fourth choice on Derby Watch, is unfortunate. He had a bad trip (slow pace, ground loss) as the Louisiana Derby favorite, but his 32 qualifying points may not be sufficient to make the Kentucky Derby field. Mage, whose inclusion on Derby Watch was always precarious, drops off the list to make room for the additions. Mage runs Saturday in the Florida Derby.
ON THE BUBBLE
Wild On Ice upset the low-rated Sunland Derby (77 Beyer) and subsequently was made eligible for the Triple Crown. Wild On Ice’s 50-point total might be enough to make the Kentucky Derby field if his connections choose. Jace’s Road, who has 45 points, finished third in the Louisiana Derby despite pressing slow fractions. Dura Erede earned 40 points finishing second in the UAE Derby. His status for the Kentucky Derby is uncertain.
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