Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 27, 2024

WHO’S HOT

Catching Freedom took advantage of a pro-closers race flow in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby to score a last-to-first victory at Fair Grounds and cement his Kentucky Derby credentials. Catching Freedom and runner-up Honor Marie, who rallied from next-to-last, were both exiting the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes won by Derby Watch favorite Sierra Leone. Subsequently, linemaker David Aragona lowered Sierra Leone to 6-1 and Catching Freedom to 8-1 second choice. Honor Marie was trimmed to 15-1 co-sixth choice.

Endlessly won the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on synthetic but will pass the Derby and return to turf. West Saratoga, the Jeff Ruby runner-up, earned 50 points to virtually insure a Derby berth. He opens at 50-1 on Derby Watch. T O Password is 40-1 after he earned a berth with a narrow win in the Fukuryu Stakes. He leads the Japan Road to the Derby points standings. Stronghold, the only California runner on Derby Watch, drops to 30-1 after an impressive workout Monday. Stronghold runs April 6 in the Santa Anita Derby.

WHO’S NOT

Track Phantom, the Louisiana Derby pacesetter, was compromised by the race shape and faded to fourth as the favorite. Questions remain regarding his distance ability, but the complexion of the race was against him. Track Phantom, with 70 qualifying points, remains on Derby Watch. His odds drifted to 20-1. Common Defense, fifth in the Louisiana Derby, drops off Derby Watch.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2024: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

Timberlake is a contender Saturday in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, but the strength of his win in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes is uncertain. Eight runners Timberlake defeated in the Rebel ran back on March 23; seven finished off the board. Rebel sixth-place finisher Carbone ran second in an ungraded race.

Ramjet drops from Derby Watch. Ramjet led the Japan Road to the Derby standings until second-time starter T O Password upset the Fukuryu. Ramjet gets in only if T O Password defects.

ON THE BUBBLE

Uncle Heavy remains on the bubble. The Grade 3 winner runs April 6 in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. Tapalo, who did not make the Jeff Ruby due to insufficient earnings, continues to work well for the Santa Anita Derby.

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