Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 26, 2025

WHO’S HOT

Tiztastic delivered the performance of his career to win the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and give trainer Steve Asmussen a shot at his first Kentucky Derby victory with his 27th Derby starter. Tiztastic, 3 for 8, will train into the Derby. Tiztastic rejoins Derby Watch at 25-1 by Daily Racing Form linemaker David Aragona.

Chunk of Gold, runner-up in the Louisiana Derby, also cemented his Kentucky Derby berth. He earned the same 92 Beyer Speed Figure as his runner-up finish in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes in February but ran better in the Louisiana Derby. He was more forwardly placed, tired late, and will have six weeks into the Kentucky Derby. Chunk of Gold’s odds were lowered to 30-1.

WHO’S NOT

The three betting choices in the Louisiana Derby misfired – John Hancock, Built, and Caldera. Only one had an alibi. John Hancock, the favorite, set the pace and finished fourth, validating handicappers who suspected his win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs was not so great. Built pressed the pace in the Louisiana Derby, then flattened out to fifth. The 1 3/16 miles, apparently, was too far.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2025: Top contenders, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

Caldera stumbled badly at the break, got pinched between rivals, became rank, and finished eighth. Caldera has only 10 qualifying points and is unlikely to make the Kentucky Derby field.

Jeff Ruby Steaks runner-up Flying Mohawk reportedly will target the Derby. He is in with 50 points. His career-high Beyer is 84, the same as Rich Strike prior to his $163.60 Derby upset in 2022. Flying Mohawk’s odds could be similar.

A horse who did not even start last week is losing support. Barnes, who began Derby prep season among the favorites, did not work particularly well Sunday at Santa Anita in company with Rodriguez. Aragona raised the Derby Watch price for Barnes to 20-1.

ON THE BUBBLE

Final Gambit won the Jeff Ruby but has never raced on dirt. His Derby status is uncertain; the Grade 1 American Turf on the Derby undercard is a sensible alternative. Cornucopian, 101 Beyer debut sprint winner, is favored Saturday in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Disruptor, last-out maiden sprint winner, runs Saturday in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Impressive maiden winner Baeza runs April 5 in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Grande and Sand Devil are targeting the Wood Memorial on April 5.

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