Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 25, 2026
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WHO’S HOT
Emerging Market (Louisiana Derby) gave Chad Brown a third winner of a Kentucky Derby points-scoring race this year, joining Paladin (Risen Star) and Iron Honor (Gotham). Emerging Market was courageous in wearing down Pavlovian, who herded him late. He debuts at 15-1 on David Aragona’s Derby Watch morning line.
Emerging Market will try to become the first horse since Leonatus in 1883 to win the Kentucky Derby in his third career start. Records going back to 1937 show just six horses have tried in 88 years, most recently T O Password (fifth in 2024).
Pavlovian, coming off a narrow Sunland Park Derby win, ran a gusty race despite coming out a few paths in the Louisiana Derby and now qualifies for the Kentucky Derby.
Fulleffort won the Jeff Ruby Steaks, confirming the belief he would appreciate more distance. Now, will he handle the dirt?
WHO’S NOT
Chip Honcho was a well-beaten fifth without much excuse in Louisiana Derby. He has 49 points, which, remarkably, may not be enough this year to get into the race even if his connections still want to run.
Chip Honcho was dropped from the Derby Watch 20 as were Reagan’s Honor and Blackout Time. Reagan’s Honor would need a top-two finish in the April 5 Blue Grass, a field expected to include Paladin, Class President, and Further Ado, to make the Kentucky Derby field. Blackout Time can earn his way back on the list with a top-two finish in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby.
Bob Baffert is not hot after Buetane finished fourth in the Virginia Derby on March 14 and Blacksmith ran sixth in Louisiana Derby. The six-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer still has Potente, the San Felipe winner who is aiming to the Santa Anita Derby, Litmus Test (Arkansas Derby), Cherokee Nation (Santa Anita Derby), and Buetane (Wood Memorial) to run.
ON THE BUBBLE
Six Speed, winner of three straight in Dubai, and Pyromancer, undefeated at 2 but unraced at 3, head the field for Saturday’s UAE Derby, the last points-scoring race on the Euro/Mideast Road to the Derby. The connections of Six Speed want to run in the Kentucky Derby.
Danon Bourbon makes his stakes debut in Saturday’s Fukuryu Stakes trying to earn the top spot on Japan’s Road to the Derby. His main rivals are expected to be Charlie and Don Erectus.
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