Kentucky Derby: Who’s Hot, Who’s Not for March 25

WHO’S HOT

Victories last week by Dubai Sky in the Spiral Stakes and One Lucky Dane in a Santa Anita allowance race vaulted them onto the Derby Watch top 20 along with Mr. Z, who is running this Saturday in the Louisiana Derby. Dubai Sky and One Lucky Dane are 20-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Mr. Z is 30-1, and becomes the third horse owned by Zayat Stables to make the list, along with El Kabeir and Watchmaker’s favorite, American Pharoah. Firing Line, who won the Sunland Derby last weekend, is down to 10-1 after being 15-1 a week ago.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Kentucky Derby: International Star quietly opening eyes

WHO’S NOT

Imperia, Metaboss, and Royal Son all were dropped from the top 20 owing to subpar performances in their most recent starts. Carpe Diem had his price raised by Watchmaker from 8-1 to 10-1, so he is now the co-third choice along with Firing Line. Bolo also ticked upward on Watchmaker’s line, from 20-1 to 30-1.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

ON THE BUBBLE

In addition to the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby, the UAE Derby also will be run on Saturday, and since that race carries the same point value (100-40-20-10) as the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby, the top two finishers would conceivably have enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field. The 3-year-olds to watch in Dubai are Maftool and Mubtaahij, who won the most-recent UAE Derby preps at Meydan.