Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 22, 2023
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WHO’S HOT
The only changes to Derby Watch this week are updated comments and next starts. It is the calm before the storm. There were no major Derby preps last week; there are four this week, including three Saturday that offer 100 Derby points to the winner, 200 points overall (100-40-30-20-10). Saturday’s main prep is the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds with race favorite Instant Coffee, currently fourth choice at 12-1 on the Derby Watch odds line by David Aragona. Derby Watch listees Sun Thunder and Kingsbarns also entered the Louisiana Derby, won by favorites six of the last 10 years. Two additional points races Saturday are the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on synthetic at Turfway Park and Group 2 UAE Derby at Meydan. Jeff Ruby contender Two Phil’s is the lone Derby Watch horse running at Turfway and Meydan. Sunday, the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby offers 50 points to the winner. Fort Bragg faces Henry Q and program favorite Hard to Figure, whose trainer Bob Baffert is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby. National Treasure recovered from a bruised foot that necessitated scratching March 4 from the San Felipe. He posted his second work in five days March 19 at Santa Anita. National Treasure is aiming to the Blue Grass on April 8 at Keeneland. Confidence Game, winner of the Rebel on Feb. 25 at Oaklawn, also returned to the tab with an easy half-mile March 18 at Fair Grounds.
:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2023: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more
WHO’S NOT
While status quo is maintained on Derby Watch, focus shifts to recently non-productive preps, including the Louisiana Derby. Since the race was moved to late March in 2010, Louisiana Derby-to-Kentucky Derby starters are 0 for 31 with four seconds and four thirds. As a Kentucky Derby prep, the UAE Derby is historically irrelevant – 18 Kentucky Derby starters prepped in Dubai, none hit the board in Kentucky.
ON THE BUBBLE
Hayes Strike won the Private Terms Stakes on March 18 at Laurel and may aim to the Blue Grass on April 8 at Keeneland, according to trainer Kenny McPeek and reported in Daily Racing Form by Dan Illman. Blazing Sevens, eighth in the Fountain of Youth, is back in the picture. He is likely for the Blue Grass Stakes on April 8 at Keeneland, according to trainer Chad Brown and reported in DRF by David Grening.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.