Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 20, 2024

WHO’S HOT

Although there were no major dirt races for 3-year-olds last week, the 2023 champion juvenile male Fierceness was in the news. An odds-on third in his only start this year, he is working like he will rebound in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 30 at Gulfstream Park. Fierceness looked strong March 15 in a team work; he was best over 2-for-2 Tuscan Sky. Derby Watch linemaker David Aragona subsequently lowered Fierceness to 10-1, co-second choice with Timberlake.

Sierra Leone remains Derby Watch favorite; his price was adjusted to 8-1. Sierra Leone’s win in the Grade 2 Risen Star gets tested for validity Saturday at Fair Grounds. Six who finished behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star are entered in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, including Track Phantom, the Risen Star runner-up and 3-1 Louisiana Derby favorite.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2024: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

Timberlake is co-second choice on Derby Watch at a revised 10-1. His win in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes also will be tested Saturday; Rebel runner-up Common Defense is 6-1 third choice in the Louisiana Derby.

WHO’S NOT

The final Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby race is Saturday in Tokyo. The winner of the Fukuryu Stakes would earn sufficient points for a Derby berth, but it is uncertain if an invitation would be accepted. If not, Hyacinth Stakes winner Ramjet, current Japan points leader, would qualify for a Derby berth. He will skip the Fukuryu, which drew 13 entrants. None of the four early favorites are nominated to the U.S. Triple Crown.

The Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park produced Kentucky Derby winners Rich Strike (2022) and Animal Kingdom (2011), and last year’s runner-up, Two Phil’s. But this year’s Jeff Ruby field is modest. The Jeff Ruby and Louisiana Derby offer 100 Derby points to the winner, 50 to the runner-up.

ON THE BUBBLE

A trio of 8-1 shots in the Louisiana Derby will try to enter the picture – Hall of Fame, Tuscan Gold, and Agate Road (cross-entered in Jeff Ruby but going in Louisiana Derby). Uncle Heavy returned to the work tab March 16, his first recorded work since winning the Withers on Feb. 3. Uncle Heavy is not currently listed on Derby Watch. That could change next week.

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