Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 20, 2019

WHO’S HOT

Long Range Toddy, who beat the previously unbeaten Improbable in the first division of the Rebel last Saturday, is the lone newcomer to this week’s Derby Watch top 20. He is listed as a 20-1 shot on the line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Although Game Winner and Improbable both lost for the first time last week, they remain the top two choices on Watchmaker’s line, though he bumped both up a tick, with Game Winner now 6-1 and Improbable 8-1; they were 5-1 and 6-1 last week. Omaha Beach made the biggest move off his victory over Game Winner. He is now the third choice on Watchmaker’s line at 10-1 after being 40-1 prior to the Rebel.

WHO’S NOT

Tax, the longest shot on the list last week, was removed to make way for Long Range Toddy. His Withers victory has not aged well, as the horses who were right with him in a three-way photo, Not That Brady and Our Braintrust, have come back to run poorly. In order to balance his line, the move with Omaha Beach forced Watchmaker to raise the prices of Hidden Scroll (12-1 from 10-1) and Vekoma (30-1 from 20-1).

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders with comments from Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker

ON THE BUBBLE

Anothertwistafate gets his best chance yet to move onto the list Sunday in the Sunland Derby, his first try on dirt since a sprint debut. The Louisiana Derby on Saturday is the first of the final round of Derby preps that offer 100 points to the winner and 40 for second. War of Will and Country House are already on the list, but anyone else finishing in the top two – like Spinoff – would have enough points to make the Derby field.

– Jay Privman