Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 19, 2025
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Who’s Hot
American Promise is hot, in theory. He crushed the Virginia Derby and has earned 55 qualifying points, which virtually guarantees a Kentucky Derby berth. But the reality is American Promise defeated a second-tier field in an ungraded stakes around one turn at Colonial Downs, which hardly makes him a bona fide Kentucky Derby contender. For now, the Virginia Derby merely puts American Promise on the Derby Watch Top 20 as a marginal candidate. American Promise opens at 30-1 by Daily Racing Form linemaker David Aragona.
:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2025: Top contenders, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more
Sovereignty’s price was lowered from 8-1 to 6-1, making him clear second choice behind 9-2 favorite Journalism on the Derby Watch odds line. Citizen Bull is third choice at 8-1.
Who’s Not
Getaway Car could not take the heat in the Virginia Derby and finished fourth at odds-on. Though he has 46 qualifying points, it would be a surprise if Getaway Car rejoined the Kentucky Derby trail. Barnes, runner-up to Journalism in the highly rated San Felipe on March 1 at Santa Anita, worked Monday in company with 101 Beyer Speed Figure maiden winner Cornucopian. Cornucopian looked best in the work. Aragona raised the Derby Watch price for Barnes from 8-1 to 10-1. He is fourth choice.
On the Bubble
The bubble is growing, and now includes a half-dozen 3-year-olds who could join the Derby Watch Top 20. They are Baeza, maiden winner targeting the Santa Anita Derby; Caldera, wide-trip runner-up in the Sunland Derby entered Saturday in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds; Grande, 2 for 2 after maiden and allowance wins; John Hancock, the Sam F. Davis winner also entered in the Louisiana Derby; Poster, who figures to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks on Saturday at Turfway Park; and Gotham runner-up Sand Devil, who is targeting the Wood Memorial.
The “Bubble” list does not include Cornucopian. But his triple-digit figure in a maiden sprint and impressive team work Monday with Grade 2 winner Barnes suggest Cornucopian might fit in an unspecified Derby points race. East Avenue also is not listed. A Grade 1 winner last year, East Avenue is headed to the Blue Grass Stakes on April 5 at Keeneland.
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