Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 19

WHO’S HOT

Social Inclusion, who was a runaway winner of a Gulfstream Park allowance race last week, and Ride On Curlin, a close third in the Rebel Stakes, are the two newcomers to this week’s Derby Watch top 20. Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form ’s national handicapper, has Social Inclusion at 15-1 on his future line for the May 3 Kentucky Derby, with Ride On Curlin at 30-1. Hoppertunity, the Rebel winner, saw his odds tumble to 12-1 from last week’s 40-1. Rebel runner-up Tapiture, 12-1 last week, is now 10-1. Watchmaker also slightly lowered the odds on Intense Holiday (now 15-1 from 20-1) and Albano (30-1 from 40-1).

[DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Road to Kentucky Derby bumpy as ever for top 3-year-olds]

WHO’S NOT

Bobby’s Kitten and Kobe’s Back were dropped to make room for the two newcomers. Bobby’s Kitten was a tenuous addition last week, based primarily on the Derby intentions of his owners, Ken and Sarah Ramsey, and the projection that he will be among the favorites for next month’s Blue Grass. He could work his way back on the list by then, but for now he has been muscled out. Kobe’s Back ran poorly in the Rebel. Watchmaker slightly raised the prices on several horses, including favored Cairo Prince, who is now 6-1 from last week’s 5-1. Strong Mandate (25-1 from 15-1) and Uncle Sigh (30-1 from 25-1) also edged higher.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

ON THE BUBBLE

Both the Spiral Stakes on Saturday at Turfway and the Sunland Derby on Sunday offer 50 points to the winner on the system used by Churchill Downs to determine the Derby field if the race oversubscribes, so if the winner isn’t among the top 20 now, he will be next week.