May 4th, 2013 − Churchill Downs

Kentucky Derby Top 20

Field for the 2013 Kentucky Derby. Horses listed in order of Watchmaker odds.

 

Post # Horse / Sire Track Odds Watchmaker Odds Best Beyer Owner, Trainer, and Jockey Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Comments
16 Orb
by Malibu Moon		 7-2 5-1 97 Stuart Janney 3rd & Phipps St.
C. McGaughey/J. Rosario		 Jay Privman: Improving with each start, and believe Hall of Fame trainer has him set for career-best. My pick.
Mike Watchmaker: Picked him in his last two and I am not going to get off him now. Jay, please, leave him alone.
 
14 Verrazano
by More Than Ready		 4-1 6-1 105 Let's Go Stable, Magnier, Tabor
T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez		 JP: Hasn't done a thing wrong in any race yet, but have gut feeling 10 furlongs will be a mite too far.
MW: Every wise guy in America wants to beat him, which makes him more dangerous; a real runner.
 
8 Goldencents
by Into Mischief		 5-1 8-1 105 W. C. Racing, et al
D. O'Neill/K. Krigger		 JP: Loved SA Dby win, and expect relatively moderate pace, which helps. O'Neill with repeat chance.
MW: Had a relaxed early trip last time. An identical trip under these conditions is asking for a lot.
 
3 Revolutionary
by War Pass		 10-1 8-1 102 WinStar Farm
T. Pletcher/C. Borel		 JP: Four for Calvin? It could happen. Has won 3 in a row, overcame wide trip at FG, training super.
MW: Certainly capable of victory, but has not faced horses remotely this good during his win streak.
 
5 Normandy Invasion
by Tapit		 12-1 8-1 99 Fox Hill Farms
C. Brown/J. Castellano		 JP: Third start off layoff should have him primed for best, Castellano chose him over Revolutionary.
MW: Rallying second into slow pace in the Wood was a fine effort. Best races so far all at Aqueduct.
 
12 Itsmyluckyday
by Lawyer Ron		 15-1 12-1 104 Trilogy Stable & Laurie Plesa
E. Plesa Jr./E. Trujillo		 JP: Second to Orb in Florida Derby, so if I like Orb - which I do - I have to give this guy respect.
MW: Was coming off planned two-month break in Fl. Derby, so he can certainly improve; intriguing.
 
19 Java's War
by War Pass		   15-1 96 Charles Fipke
K. McPeek/J. Leparoux		 JP: Was big fan after Tampa return, Blue Grass win, but final work over track was poor, can't endorse.
MW: My concern is he breaks slow, and he's not so good that he can spot this field a head start.
 
9 Overanalyze
by Dixie Union		 15-1 15-1 99 Repole Stable
T. Pletcher/R. Bejarano		 JP: Believe he beat a very ordinary bunch at OP, so he'll have to improve significantly to be a player.
MW: Beyer was mediocre, too. His Remsen win over Normandy Invasion is feeling a little flukey now.
 
20 Vyjack
by Into Mischief		 15-1 15-1 96s Pick Six Racing
R. Rodriguez/G. Gomez		 JP: Think he does best when allowed to sit back, make one run. Was too close to pace in the Wood.
MW: He's a nice, hard-trying horse, but I'm not sure that going 10 furlongs is really what he wants..
 
17 Will Take Charge
by Unbridled's Song		 20-1 20-1 95 Willis Horton
D.W. Lukas/J. Court		 JP: Hasn't run since 3/16, which I'm not crazy about, and in trouble if it rains. Worst race on off track.
MW: Even if he was already in on points, I don't like the skipping the final prep thing, either. Pass.
 
6 Mylute
by Midnight Lute		 15-1 20-1 93 Gold Mark and Whisper Hill Farms
T. Amoss/R. Napravnik		 JP: Gave Revolutionary all he could handle in La. Derby, but think he might be a cut below the best.
MW: Well, if he's a cut below, what does it say about Revolutionary? A likely underlay with Rosie.
 
4 Golden Soul
by Perfect Soul		 50-1 30-1 89 Charles Fipke
D. Stewart/R. Albarado		 JP: Should be running late, may pass enough tired rivals to get into the bottom of the gimmicks.
MW: His fourth in the La. Derby was as much a function of rivals having big trouble than anything.
 
10 Palace Malice
by Curlin		 20-1 30-1 93 Dogwood Stable
T. Pletcher/M. Smith		 JP: Like addition of blinkers since the speed he had in sprints has been absent in recent route races.
MW: Just has not yet become as good as many thought he would be; no excuse in the Blue Grass.
 
15 Charming Kitten
by Kitten's Joy		 20-1 30-1 88 Ken & Sarah Ramsey
T. Pletcher/E. Prado		 JP: All races on turf or synthetic. While dirt work last weekend wasn't bad, it wasn't great, either.
MW: Would have to have been a secret freak on dirt all this time, and that just doesn't seem likely.
 
18 Frac Daddy
by Scat Daddy		 50-1 30-1 91 Magic City Thd Partners
K. McPeek/V. Lebron		 JP: Don't think he's good enough, but will use underneath since he worked well, and best races at CD.
MW: Was a soundly beaten second in an underwhelming Arkansas Derby. Seriously up against it.
 
11 Lines of Battle
by War Front		 30-1 30-1 74t Allen, Magnier, Tabor, et al
A. O'Brien/R. Moore		 JP: All prior races on turf and synthetic, so it's a guess as to how he'll do, but taking negative view.
MW: Maybe someday some horse will win this off a Dubai prep. Until then, I will be betting against.
 
2 Oxbow
by Awesome Again		 30-1 30-1 95 Calumet Farm
D.W. Lukas/G. Stevens		 JP: After several good tries, Ark. Dby was step back. Great story with Stevens, but last left me cold.
MW: He must raise his game significantly to compete here, but he looks to be going the wrong way.
 
1 Black Onyx
by Rock Hard Ten		 50-1 50-1 90 Sterling Racing
K. Breen/J. Bravo		 JP: My longshot to get into exotics based on deceptively good final work over surface last weekend.
MW: Has to hope he catches the same Spiral-Derby lightning as Animal Kingdom did. Not for me.
 
13 Falling Sky
by Lion Heart		 50-1 50-1 92 Newtown Anner Stud, et al
J. Terranova 2nd/L. Saez		 JP: Expected pace scenario should help him, but has yet to prove he can handle the best of this field.
MW: His wheelhouse looks to be Gr. 3, 8.5 furlong races, not 10 furlong Gr. 1 classics such as this.
 
7 Giant Finish
by Frost Giant		 50-1 50-1 86 Sunrise Stables, et al
A. Dutrow/J. Espinoza		 JP: Trainer initially was not going to come to saddle him, which tells you how excited he is about this.
MW: It was this or an allowance race at Belmont. Little difference between the two, in bizzarro world.
ALSO ELIGIBLE
  Fear The Kitten
by Kitten's Joy		   50-1 84 Frank Irvin
M. Maker/A. Garcia		 JP: Don't think this horse is close to good enough, but Maker has been a miracle worker this spring.
MW: Maker is great, but the only way this horse can win is if they let him cut through the infield.

(s) Top Beyer earned in sprint; (t) Top Beyer earned on turf; (RPR) Racing Post Rating