May 5th, 2012 − Churchill Downs

Kentucky Derby Top 20

PP Horse / Sire Watchmaker Odds Track Odds Best Beyer Owner, Trainer, and Jockey Last Race, Result, and Beyer Next Likely Race, Track, and Date Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Comments
6 Bodemeister
by Empire Maker		 9-2 4-1 108 Zayat Stables and Moreno
B. Baffert/M. Smith		 Arkansas Derby, 4/14
1st by 9 1/2, 108		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 Jay Privman: Has 130 years of history going against him, but has immense talent, and looked super in his final drill.
Mike Watchmaker: The fastest horse going in, and might simply be clearly better than everyone else; main knock is the price.
 
4 Union Rags
by Dixie Union		 5-1 9-2 95 Chadds Ford Stable
M. Matz/J. Leparoux		 Florida Derby, 3/31
3rd by 1 1/4, 93		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: Had no chance the way the Florida Derby unfolded, yet finished furiously, and has trained great at CD.
MW: He's obvious, but he has yet to raise his game to a higher level, and no one really knows when or if he will.
 
8 Creative Cause
by Giant's Causeway		 6-1 12-1 102 Heinz Steinmann
M. Harrington/J. Rosario		 Santa Anita Derby, 4/7
2nd by a nose, 94		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: Beat Bodemeister in the San Felipe, and he's never lost by more than one length. Fires every time out.
MW:I just wish he was racing with blinkers because I fear he might hang without them; still a prime win contender.
 
15 Gemologist
by Tiznow		 8-1 6-1 98 WinStar Farm
T. Pletcher/J. Castellano		 Wood Memorial, 4/7
1st by a neck, 98		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: What's he done wrong? He is unbeaten, he has two prior wins at CD, and this is his third start off a layoff.
MW: It all comes down to how good you thought his Wood was. My feeling is that there were stronger Derby preps.
 
5 Dullahan
by Even the Score		 10-1 8-1 98 Donegal Racing
D. Romans/K. Desormeaux		 Blue Grass, 4/14
1st by 1 1/4, 98		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: Love the way he has been campaigned, but can't shake the nagging belief that he's better on synthetics.
MW: A valid point, one that might help boost his odds; comes off a career-best effort, and is primed for even better.
 
14 Hansen
by Tapit		 10-1 10-1 96 K. Hansen & Skychai Racing
M. Maker/R. Dominguez		 Blue Grass, 4/14
2nd by 1 1/4, 96		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: Best race was the Gotham when he had a target to shoot at, so Trinniberg's presence may actually help him.
MW: The distance is a question, but the synthetic-to-dirt move is a plus; might be dangerous to underestimate him.
 
19 I'll Have Another
by Flower Alley		 15-1 12-1 96 J. Paul Reddam
D. O'Neill/M. Gutierrez		 Santa Anita Derby, 4/7
1st by a nose, 95		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: With the exception of the sloppy track debacle at Saratoga, he has run well every time. Game in SA Derby.
MW: Merits respect. The main worry is he might regress after a demanding effort last time off a two-month layoff.
 
11 Alpha
by Bernardini		 15-1 15-1 98 Godolphin Racing
K. McLaughlin/R. Maragh		 Wood Memorial, 4/7
2nd by a neck, 98		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: Had a rough trip and ran a courageous race in the Wood Memorial, but Gemologist was toying with him late.
MW: Was also away two months before the Wood, so he can improve; subsequent infection is unsettling, though.
 
3 Take Charge Indy
by A.P. Indy		 15-1 15-1 96 Chuck & Maribeth Sandford
P. Byrne/C. Borel		 Florida Derby, 3/31
1st by 1, 95		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: Looks like he's falling through the cracks, but should not be taken lightly. Live longshot.
MW: What got him here was his upset of the Fla. Derby, but he had a perfect trip that he is unlikely to get this time.
 
16 El Padrino
by Pulpit		 20-1 20-1 100 Let's Go Stable
T. Pletcher/R.Bejarano		 Florida Derby, 3/31
4th by 3, 90		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: Was profoundly disappointed with him in the Florida Derby, and his Risen Star form is not holding up.
MW: Is one of only four with a triple-digit Beyer, but he got that three back and his form is going the wrong way.
 
1 Daddy Long Legs
by Scat Daddy		 30-1 30-1 60 Mrs. J. Magnier & M. Tabor
A. O'Brien/C. O'Donoghue		 UAE Derby, 3/31
1st by 1 1/4, 117 (RPR)		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: His only dirt race was a giant bust, and he's had but one start since. Still, his connections are stellar.
MW: He's probably better than he showed in his dismal try at CD last fall, but still doesn't appear good enough.
 
10 Daddy Nose Best
by Scat Daddy		 20-1 15-1 100 Cathy & Bob Zollars
S. Asmussen/G. Gomez		 Sunland Derby, 3/25
1st by 3/4, 100		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: Very, very sneaky longshot. He will be running late into a lively pace and is a must use in the exotics.
MW: Has improved, and is one of the few with a triple-digit Beyer, but the fields he beat in his prep wins were soft.
 
13 Went the Day Well
by Proud Citizen		 30-1 30-1 92 Team Valor Int'l & Ford
H. G. Motion/J. Velazquez		 Spiral, 3/24
1st by 3 1/2, 92		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: Looks to be improving by leaps and bounds every day, but still not sure that he's quite good enough.
MW: Considering his overall form, the only way he could contend is if he has made giant progress since his Spiral.
 
18 Sabercat
by Bluegrass Cat		 30-1 30-1 92 Winchell Thoroughbreds
S. Asmussen/C. Nakatani		 Arkansas Derby, 4/14
3rd by 9 3/4, 92		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: Took a step forward in the Arkansas Derby, but he would need to make another big leap forward here.
MW: What does it say that he did improve last time and was still beaten almost 10? It says he's overmatched.
 
9 Trinniberg
by Teuflesberg		 50-1 50-1 99s Shivananda Racing
B. Parboo/W. Martinez		 Bay Shore, 4/7
1st by 3, 94		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: Really think that he's an exceptional sprinter, and I hope the folly of him running here doesn't ruin him.
MW: The jury is still out over whether he's even a special sprinter. He got easy early leads in his two wins this year.
 
17 Done Talking
by Broken Vow		 50-1 50-1 85 Skeedattle Stable
H. A. Smith/S. Russell		 Illinois Derby
1st by 3/4, 85		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: Happy that veteran trainer Hamilton Smith gets his first Derby runner, but this guy is way too slow to win this.
MW: It's hard to envision they'll go as slow late here as they did when he outstaggered them in the Illinois Derby.
 
20 Liaison
by Indian Charlie		 50-1 50-1 92 Arnold Zetcher
B. Baffert/M. Garcia		 Santa Anita Derby, 4/7
6th by 9 1/4, 78		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: Flat in all three of his starts this year. It's hard to imagine him suddenly jumping up and beating these.
MW: Even if he did hate the SA main track, his best efforts last year at 2 suggest he is a cut below the favorites.
 
12 Prospective
by Malibu Moon		 50-1 30-1 90 John C. Oxley
M. Casse/L. Contreras		 Blue Grass, 4/14
6th by 6 1/2, 87		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: Made no impact in the Blue Grass, and didn't beat much in the Tampa Bay Derby. He's hard to endorse.
MW: Will have to make a substantial leap forward to contend, and it's tough to see how he can manage that.
 
7 Rousing Sermon
by Lucky Pulpit		 50-1 50-1 91 Mr. & Mrs. Larry Williams
J. Hollendorfer/J. Lezcano		 Louisiana Derby, 4/1
3rd by 2, 87		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: Been a case of too little, too late in recent races. Seems a pretty decent cut below the division's best.
MW: Not a win candidate, but his form might be darkened because his deep closing style didn't play well at SA.
 
2 Optimizer
by English Channel		 50-1 50-1 91 Bluegrass Hall
D.W. Lukas/J. Court		 Arkansas Derby, 4/14
9th by 20 1/2, 74		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: Has allowance conditions, which he should use, and his best races have been on turf, where he belongs.
MW: Has been force fed dirt unsuccessfully in his last six starts. Friday's American Turf is the race he should be in.
 
21 (AE) My Adonis
by Pleasantly Perfect		 50-1 50-1 95 George & Lori Hall
K. Breen/E. Trujillo		 Wood Memorial, 4/7
7th by 9 1/4, 83		 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m
Churchill Downs, 5/5		 JP: Was up close early in the Wood and faded. Does his best work when allowed to drop back and make one run.
MW: I didn't understand his trip at all in the Wood, but he's still overmatched. Not in Hansen's league in the Gotham.
 
Horses Listed In Order Of Watchmaker Odds
(s) Top Beyer in a Sprint;
(RPR) Racing Post Rating