Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 18, 2026

Who’s Hot

Incredibolt rebounded from his non-effort in the Grade 3 Holy Bull with a professional victory, albeit against modest company, in last Saturday’s Virginia Derby. He did go 2 for 2 at Churchill last year with a stakes victory and will now train up to the Kentucky Derby.

Incredibolt was made 20-1 on Daily Racing Form linemaker David Aragona’s early line. Aragona made a few adjustments from last week, moving Class President from 15-1 to 20-1 and lowering Silent Tactic from 20-1 to 15-1. Aragona also lowered Potente from 25-1 to 20-1 and Cherokee Nation from 30-1 to 25-1. Iron Honor was raised to 30-1 from 25-1.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2026: Top contenders, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

Flavien Prat picks up the mount on Fountain of Youth winner Commandment for the Grade 1 Florida Derby as Irad Ortiz Jr. is committed to ride Renegade in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby the same day. Prat will also regain the mount on Paladin for the Grade 1 Blue Grass on April 4. Prat, who rode Paladin to victory in the Remsen, rode in Saudi Arabia the day Paladin won the Grade 2 Risen Star under Tyler Gaffalione.

Who’s Not

Buetane had a bottled-up trip in the Virginia Derby, where he finished fourth, beaten 6 1/2 lengths. Per Bob Baffert, Buetane has shipped to New York, where he will train toward a likely start in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 4. The Wood is shaping up to be a large field and nominations don’t close until this weekend.

High Camp was a total no-show in Virginia as the 4-1 second choice in what was a chance to jump onto the trail.

On the Bubble

In order to make room for Incredibolt in the top 20, Al Haram was dropped. Undefeated in four starts, Al Haram, who is not yet Triple Crown nominated, is pointing to the UAE Derby on March 28.

Fulleffort, second in the John Battaglia Memorial, and Stark Contrast, a two-time stakes winner on turf and second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, will likely vie for favoritism in Saturday’s Jeff Ruby Steaks over Turfway’s synthetic surface. In the Battaglia, Fulleffort was second to Great White, who is skipping this race in order to run in the Blue Grass on April 4.

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