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Churchill Downs

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 18, 2020

Jay Privman|Mar 18, 2020
Maxfield wins the 2019 Breeders' Futurity Stakes at Keeneland Racecourse
Coady Photography Maxfield wins the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland in his most recent start.

WHO’S HOT

The highly regarded Maxfield and Rebel runner-up Excession are the two newcomers to this week’s Derby Watch top 20. Maxfield had been left off the top 20 until now in the belief he would not be ready in time for the Derby when it was originally scheduled for May 2. But in light of Tuesday’s announcement by Churchill Downs that the Derby would be postponed until Sept. 5, he can be viewed through a new prism. He is 12-1, the co-fifth choice, on the future line of Marty McGee of Daily Racing Form. Excession is 50-1 on McGee’s line. Authentic remains the Derby favorite, now 4-1 on McGee’s line. Nadal is now the second choice at 5-1 after being 6-1 a week ago, following his win in the Rebel. Charlatan, 20-1 a week ago, tumbled to 8-1 after his powerful allowance win at Santa Anita. Authentic, Nadal, and Charlatan give five-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert three of the top four choices on McGee’s line. Tiz the Law is the third choice at 6-1

WHO’S NOT

Three Technique and Silver Prospector were dropped after disappointing performances in the Rebel, but with the Derby now delayed by four months – and with Churchill Downs announcing more points-scoring races would be added to the Road to the Derby stakes schedule – both should have opportunities to make amends.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2020: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

ON THE BUBBLE

The Louisiana Derby on Saturday is the only points-scoring race of the weekend, and it’s the first of those with 170 points overall, with 100 for first and 40 for second. Silver State and Wells Bayou are among those who could move onto the list with top performances.

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