Kentucky Derby: Who's Hot, Who's Not for March 18

WHO’S HOT
Bob Baffert. The comeback victory by the Baffert-trained American Pharoah in the Rebel Stakes last Saturday caused Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, to make him the favorite for the May 2 Kentucky Derby at 5-1. Dortmund is the second choice at 6-1, giving Baffert the top two Derby choices on Watchmaker’s line. New to the top 20 is Metaboss, who won the El Camino Real Derby and is scheduled to run Saturday in the Spiral Stakes. He is 30-1 on Watchmaker’s line.

WHO’S NOT
The hail Mary attempt by Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red to make the Derby came to an official end Tuesday, when he was withdrawn from consideration, so he was removed from the list, which allowed Metaboss to get in. Dortmund, last week’s favorite at 5-1, was bumped up to 6-1 to accommodate the price on Watchmaker’s new favorite, American Pharoah. Daredevil’s price also was raised, to 30-1 from last week’s 20-1.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Firing Line gets to play big dog in Sunland Derby

ON THE BUBBLE
The Spiral on Saturday and the Sunland Derby on Sunday each offer 50 points to the winner, so whoever wins those races will be guaranteed a starting berth in the Derby and will move onto the Derby Watch list if they’re not already on it. Lord Nelson and Why Two – both based in Southern California – were among eight entered Wednesday in the Sunland Derby. They will try to topple the heavy favorite, Firing Line.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays