Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 12, 2025

WHO’S HOT

The plan for Owen Almighty to target the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile on May 3 at Churchill Downs still makes sense, but that plan may have changed after his slow-pace front-running win March 8 in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. Despite trainer Brian Lynch’s reservations about Owen Almighty getting 1 1/4 miles, the colt’s owners are keen for the Kentucky Derby. Owen Almighty, whose 65 qualifying points ensures a Derby berth, is new to Derby Watch. Daily Racing Form linemaker David Aragona opens him at 40-1.

Chancer McPatrick and Hill Road are not “hot,” but they are warming up. They finished two-three in the Tampa Bay Derby, their first starts since finishing sixth and third, respectively, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Nov. 1 at Del Mar. Chancer McPatrick earned a mere 86 Beyer Speed Figure at Tampa; his two-turn ability remains uncertain. Hill Road earned an 83; he galloped out super after the wire. Hill Road, new to Derby Watch, opens at 35-1.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2025: Point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

WHO’S NOT

Patch Adams drops from the Top 20 after finishing fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby. Gaming, penciled in for the Virginia Derby on Saturday at Colonial Downs, reportedly spiked a temperature and was not entered. Gaming’s status for the Derby seems dubious.

ON THE BUBLE

Baeza moves to On the Bubble, having been replaced on the Top 20. Baeza has zero Derby points, which he will try to resolve April 5 in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. East Avenue, 10th in the Grade 2 Risen Star on Feb. 15 at Fair Grounds and subsequently dropped from Derby Watch, reportedly is aiming to the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes on April 5 at Keeneland.

Getaway Car and Rapture run Saturday in the Virginia Derby. Grande is 2 for 2 (maiden, allowance) and likely to start next in an unspecified points race. John Hancock, whose win in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa was validated when runner-up Owen Almighty won the Tampa Bay Derby, will scratch from the Virginia Derby and run in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 22 at Fair Grounds. Poster, third in the Sam Davis, runs in the Jeff Ruby Steaks on March 22 at Turfway Park.

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