Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 11, 2020

WHO’S HOT

King Guillermo and Mischevious Alex,who both earned 50 points toward a Kentucky Derby berth via victories last Saturday in, respectively, the Tampa Bay Derby and Gotham Stakes, are the newest additions to the Derby Watch top 20. King Guillermo is 30-1 on the Derby line of Marty McGee of Daily Racing Form, with Mischevious Alex 50-1. There’s a new favorite for the May 2 Derby on McGee’s line – Authentic, whose San Felipe victory last Saturday propelled him to the top spot at 7-2. He was the co-fifth choice, at 12-1, heading into last weekend. Honor A. P., a sharp second in the San Felipe, is down to 12-1 after being 30-1 a week ago.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2020: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

WHO’S NOT

Chance It, who disappointed in the Tampa Bay Derby, was dropped from the list. So too was Max Player, who didn’t do anything wrong, he just got squeezed out to make room for the two newcomers this week. He doesn’t run again until the Wood Memorial in three weeks. Owing to the sharp price drops of Authentic and Honor A. P., McGee had to raise the prices on several runners. Most were minor tweaks, such as Tiz the Law going from 4-1 to 5-1, but Thousand Words, previously unbeaten and the co-third choice entering last week at 8-1, is now 30-1 after his subpar effort in the San Felipe.

ON THE BUBBLE

The Rebel on Saturday at Oaklawn is the most significant race of the weekend, with 50 points to the winner. Expected runners Basin, Nadal, Silver Prospector, and Three Technique are already part of the top 20, but anyone else who jumps up with a big race could forge his way onto the list.

– Jay Privman