Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 1, 2023

WHO’S HOT

Forte’s stock is rising. The 2022 champion juvenile is the new favorite on the Daily Racing Form Derby Watch top 20. DRF linemaker David Aragona flipped the odds on Forte and Arabian Knight, lowering Forte to 6-1 and raising Arabian Knight to 8-1. Arabian Knight’s training at Santa Anita was interrupted by factors including weather; Forte returns Saturday in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. Confidence Game moved into the picture with an upset in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes on Feb. 25 at Oaklawn Park. His 57 total qualifying points virtually assure him a Derby berth. Confidence Game joins Derby Watch at 20-1. Aragona adjusted the price on Reincarnate, a tough-trip third in the Rebel. He drops from 20-1 to 15-1. Red Route One, the Rebel runner-up, had his price cut from 50-1 to 20-1. Defections to Derby Watch made room for Kingsbarns and Sun Thunder. Both are 50-1 and aiming to a deep Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 25 at Fair Grounds.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2023: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

WHO’S NOT

Faustin drops off Derby Watch. As of Wednesday, he was not nominated to upcoming stakes and his most recent work was Feb. 18 as rain disrupted training at Santa Anita. Giant Mischief and Gun Pilot finished sixth and seventh, respectively, in the Rebel and drop from Derby Watch. The status of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Cave Rock remains uncertain. Trainer Bob Baffert moved several Derby prospects to trainer Tim Yakteen, including National Treasure, Reincarnate, and Hejazi. Baffert declined to answer questions regarding Cave Rock. As of Tuesday, Santa Anita officials were not aware of a trainer switch for Cave Rock.

ON THE BUBBLE

Henry Q. crushed the Mine That Bird Derby on Tuesday at Sunland, winning by 14 3/4 lengths to stamp himself as early favorite for the Grade 3 Sunland Derby on March 26. The Sunland Derby winner earns 50 qualifying points, probably enough to make the Kentucky Derby field. Ah Jeez scored an impressive allowance win Feb. 24 in Dubai and will join Doug O’Neill-trained stablemate Tall Boy in the Group 2 UAE Derby on March 25 at Meydan. That race offers 100 qualifying points to the winner and 40 to the runner-up.

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