Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 8, 2023
WHO’S HOT
Newgate, with his recently adopted off-the-pace running style, joins the Derby Watch top 20 following a neck victory in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Feb. 4 at Santa Anita. He employed the new running style last month for the first time and finished second in the Grade 3 Sham. Newgate is listed at 20-1 by linemaker David Aragona. Tapit Trice’s odds were trimmed from 50-1 to 20-1. Tapit Trice romped by eight lengths in a one-turn entry-level allowance mile Feb. 4 at Gulfstream Park. Tapit Trice has never raced two turns, nor in a graded stakes, but he finishes his races as if the longer, the better. Rocket Can slinks onto the Derby Watch list at 50-1 after a wide-trip victory Feb. 4 in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. He defeated a suspect field, and his 82 Beyer is the lowest by a Holy Bull winner since Beyers were first published more than 30 years ago.
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WHO’S NOT
Arabian Lion finished last of four in the Lewis. Trainer Bob Baffert said Arabian Lion “looked heavy.” Another idea is that he simply does not want to run two turns. He finished last in his previous route, the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. Cyclone Mischief raced without Lasix in the low-rated Holy Bull and came crashing back to earth, finishing seventh as the favorite. His highest no-Lasix Beyer is a 79. Arabian Lion and Cyclone Mischief were removed from the Derby Watch list.
ON THE BUBBLE
Gun Pilot scored a visually impressive allowance win at one mile Feb. 4 at Oaklawn Park. He won by two lengths with an 87 Beyer. Geaux Rocket Ride, 92-Beyer runaway debut winner Jan. 29 at Santa Anita, will stretch to two turns in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on March 4 at Santa Anita. Hard to Figure benefited by a tepid pace finishing second to Newgate in the Lewis. Both colts earned a 100 Beyer, highest this year by a 3-year-old.
– Brad Free
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