Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 7, 2024

WHO’S HOT

Locked spiked a fever, which delays his comeback, but the Grade 1 winner opens as the 8-1 Derby Watch favorite by Daily Racing Form linemaker David Aragona. Locked, who won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland prior to finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, was aiming to the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis on Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs. The postponement is believed minor.

Will the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes return to relevance? Remsen runner-up, Sierra Leone, and the winner, Dornoch, open as two-three choices on Derby Watch, at 10-1 and 12-1, respectively. Remsen runners recently have had minimal influence on the Kentucky Derby – 2010 Remsen runner-up Mucho Macho Man and 2021 runner-up Zandon are the only top-three Remsen finishers since 2010 to place in the Derby. Both finished third.

Mystik Dan emerged from obscurity with a 101-Beyer wet-track romp in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes on Feb. 3 at Oaklawn Park. A muddy-surface fluke? Maybe not. He also ran fast, 96 Beyer, winning a maiden sprint in fall at Churchill Downs on a dry track. Mystik Dan opens at 15-1 on Derby Watch.

WHO’S NOT

Fierceness, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, could have solidified early favoritism for the Kentucky Derby by winning the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at odds-on on Feb. 3 at Gulfstream Park. Instead, he finished third. Fierceness opens as 12-1 co-third choice on Aragona’s Derby Watch line.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2024: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

Santa Anita 3-year-olds are not likely to impact the Kentucky Derby due to Churchill Downs’s extended ban of trainer Bob Baffert, whose Nysos crushed the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis on Feb. 3. Baffert also trains the Lewis runner-up, Wine Me Up, and BC Juvenile runner-up Muth.

ON THE BUBBLE

The one major U.S. stakes for 3-year-olds this week is on Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs, but the Sam F. Davis is not expected to include any runners listed on Derby Watch. Early favorites in the Sam Davis are Change of Command and Agate Road. Stay tuned.

Noteworthy debut winners are on the radar. Knightsbridge, who won by more than 10 lengths on Nov. 4 at Churchill Downs, has resumed working for trainer Bill Mott. Tuscan Sky is working regularly following his Jan. 13 win by more than five lengths at Aqueduct. He is trained by Todd Pletcher. Just a Touch, trained by Brad Cox, won by more than five on Jan. 27 at Fair Grounds.

Is it too late to jump on the Derby trail? Hardly. Last year’s Derby winner, Mage, was only a one-start debut winner as of February; 2018 Derby winner Justify made his career debut on Feb. 18.

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