Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 5, 2025

WHO’S HOT

Citizen Bull opens as 10-1 favorite on the Derby Watch Top 20 after a front-running comeback win Feb. 1 in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita. Wire-to-wire winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile three months earlier, Citizen Bull was handed an easy lead in the Lewis and was strong to the finish. He will always be tough to catch when he gets a soft trip setting the pace.

Barnes, 2 for 2 sprinting, opens as 12-1 second choice by Daily Racing Form linemaker David Aragona. Barnes will stretch out for his next start, presumably in either the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes on Feb. 22 at Oaklawn Park or the Grade 2 San Felipe on March 1 at Santa Anita. Citizen Bull, Barnes, and Lewis runner-up Rodriguez are trained by Bob Baffert. Lightly raced Rodriguez ran well finishing second in the Lewis. He opens at 25-1.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2025: Point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

Burnham Square and East Avenue are 15-1 co-third choices on Derby Watch. Burnham Square scored a tenacious victory Feb. 1 in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. East Avenue launches his 3-year-old campaign Feb. 15 in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds.

Captain Cook stretched out to 1 1/8 miles in the Withers Stakes on Feb. 1 and won clear. Captain Cook opens at 30-1.

WHO’S NOT

Grade 1 winner Gaming and Grade 1-placed Ferocious ran below par in their most recent starts. Gaming finished eighth in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes on Jan. 25 at Oaklawn. Ferocious got drubbed in his comeback in the Holy Bull, finishing fourth by double digits. His alibi: He had only three workouts going in. Neither Gaming nor Ferocious made the Derby Watch Top 20.

ON THE BUBBLE

Stakes-placed Treaty of Rome is expected to start as one of the favorites in the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes on Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs. Grade 3 sprint winner Bullard will stretch out in the Rebel. Surfside Moon is under the radar. His runner-up finish as a 33-1 outsider in the Withers might not have been a fluke.

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