Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 26, 2025
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WHO’S HOT
Coal Battle and Madaket Road finished one-two in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, but opinions may differ on who ran better. Coal Battle benefited from a perfect trip behind a hot pace to win clear. Daily Racing Form linemaker David Aragona lowered his Derby Watch odds from 50-1 to 15-1. Coal Battle is 5 for 5 on dirt.
Madaket Road, runner-up by 1 1/4 lengths, ran every bit as well as Coal Battle. Madaket Road’s jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., was instructed to set the pace in the Rebel, and the pace was severe. Madaket Road sped the opening half in 45.72 seconds and six furlongs in 1:10.94. Those are the fastest Rebel fractions this century; the three runners who were positioned closest to Madaket Road finished 10th, 12th, and 13th. Madaket Road is new to Derby Watch at 25-1.
California Burrito set a slow pace and wired the John Battaglia Stakes at Turfway Park; he opens at 50-1 on Derby Watch. Getaway Car, winner of the Sunland Derby on Feb. 16, is new to Derby Watch at 40-1. California-based Cornucopian won his debut at Oaklawn with a 101 Beyer Speed Figure, but currently is not considered a Derby prospect.
WHO’S NOT
Sandman stays on the list after his modest third in the Rebel, although fifth-place Tiztastic and 10th-place Speed King were dropped. First Resort, early favorite for the Battaglia, scratched due to a hock injury. First Resort is off the Derby trail. Bullard shipped from California to Arkansas for the Rebel, got sick, scratched, and is up against it to make the Derby.
:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2025: Point standings, prep schedule, news, and more
ON THE BUBBLE
Gaming is back in the picture despite misfires at Oaklawn Park and Los Alamitos. Gaming previously finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after winning the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. Gaming worked fast Feb. 21 at Santa Anita and will get another shot in an unspecified points race. Luxor Cafe won the Hyacinth Stakes in Tokyo and leads the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby points list. The Japan series concludes March 29 with the Fukuryu Stakes.
John Hancock and Poster, one-three in the Sam F. Davis, remain on the bubble along with Withers runner-up Surfside Moon.
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