Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 22, 2023

WHO’S HOT

Angel of Empire and Two Phil’s are added to Derby Watch, both listed at 30-1 by linemaker David Aragona, after finishing one-three in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 18 at Fair Grounds. Late-runner Angel of Empire took advantage of a pace collapse to win by a length. Two Phil’s made an early move, loomed, and weakened. Two Phil’s ran better than runner-up Sun Thunder. Tim Yakteen saw his list of Derby prospects mushroom. Yakteen, who already trains Kentucky Derby candidate Practical Move, picked up multiple prospects last week from Bob Baffert. Yakteen is now listed as trainer of Reincarnate, who is entered in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes on Saturday at Oaklawn Park. Three former Baffert trainees now listed with Yakteen as trainer in nominations for the Grade 3 Gotham on March 4 at Aqueduct are Arabian Lion, Carmel Road, and Hejazi.

WHO’S NOT

Victory Formation and Curly Jack drop from Derby Watch. Victory Formation finished ninth as the Risen Star favorite, his first loss in four starts. Curly Jack finished eighth. The filly Hoosier Philly and colt Disarm, neither listed on Derby Watch but considered candidates, both sputtered. Hoosier Philly finished third as the favorite in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra on Feb. 18 at Fair Grounds; Disarm finished second as the favorite in an allowance Feb. 19 at Oaklawn Park. Arabian Knight, the 6-1 Derby Watch favorite, had only one recorded work as of Feb. 21, since his most recent start Jan. 28. He worked three furlongs Feb. 13. If there was a hiccup, and if it was minor, Arabian Knight would have plenty of time to make the Santa Anita Derby on April 8. “He’s not going to work this week. He’s fine,” trainer Bob Baffert said.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2023: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

ON THE BUBBLE

Sun Thunder finished second with a perfect trip in the Risen Star; his 24 Derby qualifying points rank fourth on the leaderboard. Perriere emerged as points leader in the “Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby” by winning the Hyacinth Stakes on Feb. 19 at Tokyo Racecourse. Churchill Downs reserves one Derby berth for a Japan-based runner. Perriere, who is 3 for 4, has 36 points; the next-ranked Japan runner has 20. The final Japan points race is the Fukuryu Stakes on March 25 at Nakayama, which allocates 40 points to the winner.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.