Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 18, 2026

WHO’S HOT

Paladin came off a 10-week layoff to run down a loose-on-the-lead Chip Honcho and win the Grade 2 Risen Star, his second win at 1 1/8 miles, and improve his record to 3 for 3. David Aragona, who last week installed Paladin as the 10-1 favorite on his Derby Watch line, has lowered him to 6-1.

Trainer Chad Brown will follow the same route to the Kentucky Derby he used with 2024 Risen Star winner Sierra Leone, meaning Paladin will point to the Grade 1 Blue Grass on April 4. Chip Honcho rebounded from his disappointing effort in the Lecomte with a solid front-running effort in the Risen Star and likely targets the Louisiana Derby.

Al Haram cracked the Derby Watch Top 20 with a strong off-the-pace victory in the Saudi Derby, his fourth win in as many starts. He will get tested for distance in the UAE Derby on March 28 against the likes of Six Speed and Pyromancer.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2026: Top contenders, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

WHO’S NOT

Courting was a disappointing sixth in the Risen Star. Yeah, he was wide, but he did not accelerate when the real running started.

Mesquite, runner-up in the Lecomte, was removed from the Derby trail with what is believed to be a soft-tissue injury.

Thunderously, a good-looking debut winner Jan. 10, had a setback and will be sidelined indefinitely, according to trainer Bill Mott.

ON THE BUBBLE

Pavlovian nosed out Express Kid in the Sunland Derby but neither were deemed worthy of cracking the Top 20 just yet. The Santa Anita Derby may be next for Pavlovian, while Express Kid could be headed to the Arkansas Derby.

Chief Wallabee, an impressive debut winner, is likely to be entered in the Fountain of Youth, where he will face undefeated Swale winner Solitude Dude and debut winner Canaletto in what is shaping up to be a fascinating race on Feb. 28

Street Beast and Fulleffort, the one-two finishers in the Leonatus Stakes, rematch in Saturday’s John Battaglia Stakes, the lone North American points-scoring race on the calendar this weekend.

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