Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 18

WHO’S HOT
There was no change to the Derby Watch top 20 from a week ago in terms of the runners on the list or the Kentucky Derby future line produced by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, who last week made Dortmund the ante-post favorite at 6-1. American Pharoah sure looked good in his third breeze last weekend. Last year’s Eclipse Award winner is coming around fas

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Kentucky Derby: Upstart put in good position

WHO’S NOT
Since there were no newcomers to the top 20, no one got bumped. One of the more precarious positions is held by Texas Red, who was favored at 8-1 on the initial Derby Watch list two weeks ago but last week was relegated to the third choice at 10-1 on Watchmaker’s line, owing to a foot abscess that is interrupting his intended schedule. The timing is terrible. He’ll only have a chance for one more prep even if everything goes as well as his connections hope.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

ON THE BUBBLE
There should be plenty of movement this weekend after the Fountain of Youth and Risen Star stakes Saturday and, weather permitting, the Southwest on Sunday. Gorgeous Bird, who will go for his third straight win in the Fountain of Youth, and Mr. Z, scheduled to run in the Southwest, are among those who could move onto the list after this weekend. Metaboss, the winner of last week’s El Camino Real Derby, missed making the cut this week but also could move up if a significant number of those currently on the list take backward steps this weekend.