Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 14, 2024

WHO’S HOT

Sierra Leone is the updated Derby Watch favorite, at least until he runs Saturday in an outstanding edition of the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. Derby Watch linemaker David Aragona lists Sierra Leone as the tepid 12-1 choice after downgrading Locked, who missed his scheduled comeback last week after spiking a fever.

Sierra Leone, who will add blinkers Saturday in his first start since a runner-up finish in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes on Dec. 2 at Aqueduct, is one of five Derby Watch listers entered in the Risen Star. Others are Track Phantom, Catching Freedom, Hall of Fame, and Honor Marie.

Aragona lowered Timberlake to 15-1 following a 59.40-second bullet work last week. Timberlake, fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, is expected to be among the favorites in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes on Feb. 24 at Oaklawn Park. No More Time is new to Derby Watch; he opens at 40-1 off a low-rated (80 Beyer Speed Figure) victory in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis last weekend at Tampa Bay Downs.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2024: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

WHO’S NOT

Snead is off the Derby Watch list. Trainer Brendan Walsh told Daily Racing Form reporter Marcus Hersh that stakes-placed Snead has an unspecified issue Walsh described as “pretty minor.” Locked is already losing steam. Aragona raised his odds from 8-1 to 20-1 after the colt missed his scheduled comeback in the Sam Davis. Locked has not started since his third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Nov. 3 at Santa Anita.

ON THE BUBBLE

Nash, who regressed in both starts after a 97-Beyer maiden runaway in November, is entered in a first-level allowance Saturday at Fair Grounds. His rivals in race 3 include Tuscan Sky, a big maiden sprint winner on a wet track last month at Aqueduct. Agate Road, runner-up in the Sam Davis after breaking slowly, could aim to the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby on March 9. Antiquarian, runner-up to Derby Watch lister Conquest Warrior in his debut last month at Gulfstream Park, is entered in a maiden route, race 9, on Saturday at Fair Grounds.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.