Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 12, 2025

WHO’S HOT

Sand Devil defeated just four New York-breds in the Damon Runyon Stakes last Saturday at Aqueduct, but the 3-for-3 colt was fast and game. Sand Devil is the only new face this week on the Derby Watch Top 20. Daily Racing Form linemaker David Aragona opens him at 40-1, replacing Poster.

The 93 Beyer Speed Figure that Sand Devil earned was the highest by a Damon Runyon winner since Samraat earned a 95 in 2013, when the race was a mile and 70 yards. It was later shortened to seven furlongs. Sand Devil will target the one-mile Grade 3 Gotham Stakes on March 1 at Aqueduct.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2025: Point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

Colloquial was hot Feb. 7 at Aqueduct, crushing a maiden sprint by seven lengths and earning a gawdy 106 Beyer. He is not a Derby prospect. DRF correspondent David Grening subsequently reported that the short-term plan for Colloquial is to stay at one turn. Colloquial certainly is fast.

WHO’S NOT

John Hancock could be considered a hot prospect after a front-running victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at 1 1/16 miles last Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs in only his second start. But the significance of the Sam Davis is debatable. John Hancock earned a mere 85 Beyer, the closers did not close, and runner-up Owen Almighty is a one-turn specialist who will shorten up.

Poster rallied from last to third in the Sam Davis, a race dominated by two front-runners. Poster, however, has yet to run fast. His career-high 83 Beyer was earned winning the unproductive Remsen Stakes. Poster earned an 81 in the Sam Davis. He drops off the Derby Watch Top 20.

ON THE BUBBLE

John Hancock did not make the Top 20, but his Sam Davis victory merits some respect. For now, he and Poster are on the bubble along with Withers runner-up Surfside Moon and California-based sprint stakes winner Bullard, who runs Feb. 22 in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Baeza, highly rated runner-up last out and a sibling to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage, is entered in race 6 on Friday at Santa Anita.

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