Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Aug. 5, 2020

WHO’S HOT

Thousand Words upset Honor A. P. in the Shared Belief Stakes on Saturday at Del Mar and got a Beyer Speed Figure of 104, all of which prompted Marty McGee of Daily Racing Form to cut his odds to 12-1 from last week’s 50-1 on his line for the Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5. Art Collector, scheduled to run Sunday in the Ellis Park Derby, is now the second choice on McGee’s line at 5-1, behind the acknowledged favorite, Tiz the Law, who starts Saturday in the Travers at Saratoga. Tiz the Law is currently 2-1 on McGee’s Derby line. Two horses who will face Tiz the Law on Saturday – Shivaree and South Bend – are the two newcomers to this week’s Derby Watch top 20 list, which has had trouble filling out the bottom slots in recent weeks. McGee has both at 50-1.

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WHO’S NOT

Cezanne, last of four in the Shared Belief, and Mystic Guide, who is bypassing the Travers and thus will skip the Derby, both were removed from the top 20 list. Honor A. P., the second choice on McGee’s Derby line at 4-1 last week, is now the third choice at 6-1 after being defeated in the Shared Belief.

ON THE BUBBLE

Anneau d’Or scratched from the Shared Belief in favor of the Ellis Park Derby, which also was expected to lure Attachment Rate, Finnick the Fierce, and Necker Island. Happy Saver and Shirl’s Speight are among the lightly raced horses who have no points but could come under consideration for the Derby if less than the maximum 20 are expected, and their connections decide to get ambitious.