Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 7, 2021
WHO’S HOT
Todd Pletcher. Two weeks ago, the two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer didn’t have any horses with point values sufficient to land them in the Derby Watch top 20. Now, he has four. Bourbonic and Dynamic One, who were one-two in the Wood Memorial last Saturday, are two of the five newcomers to this week’s list, and those two Pletcher trainees join week-old Pletcher members Known Agenda and Sainthood. Bourbonic and Dynamic One are both 50-1 on the line set by Daily Racing Form’s Marty McGee for the May 1 Derby. Also added to the list this week are Rock Your World, the Santa Anita Derby winner, who is the co-fourth choice at 8-1 on McGee’s line, and Panadol, the United Arab Emirates Derby runner-up, who is 50-1.
Returning to the list after getting thrown off last month is Caddo River, who should be no worse than the third choice in the Arkansas Derby on Saturday, affording him an excellent opportunity to move into the top 20 on points. He is 30-1 on McGee’s line. Essential Quality, the favorite at 3-1 last week, is down to 5-2 after his victory in the Blue Grass.
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WHO’S NOT
The biggest defection among the five now off the list is Greatest Honour, who was declared out of the race Wednesday by trainer Shug McGaughey. Crowded Trade, Prevalence, Risk Taking, and Weyburn – all of whom ran in the Wood Memorial – also were removed from the list, either owing to poor performance or being ruled off the Derby trail despite having adequate points. Medina Spirit, the Santa Anita Derby runner-up, saw his price rise to 12-1 from 10-1.
ON THE BUBBLE
The Arkansas Derby and the Lexington on Saturday are the final point-scoring races, so horses like Arkansas Derby entrants Get Her Number and Super Stock could vault onto the list if they earn enough points and their connections decide to run. After this weekend, points and intent are the two main drivers for the top 20 list.
– Jay Privman