Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 3, 2024

WHO’S HOT

Fierceness is back, with a vengeance. The 2023 male juvenile champion scored a dazzling victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, winning by more than 13 lengths, earning a 110 Beyer Speed Figure, and reclaiming the role of early Kentucky Derby favorite. Derby Watch linemaker David Aragona lowered the price on Fierceness to 3-1.

Forever Young remained undefeated with a wide-trip victory in the Group 2 U.A.E. Derby in Dubai. He earned a 107 Timeform rating, roughly equivalent to a low-90s Beyer. The 5-for-5 Japanese-bred faces a historical challenge at Churchill Downs. Since the first U.A.E. Derby in 2000, some 19 runners from the U.A.E. Derby, including 13 winners, made their next start in the Kentucky Derby. None finished in the money. Aragona lowered Forever Young to 8-1, behind Fierceness and Sierra Leone, who is 6-1.

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A handful of fringe contenders entered the picture. Just Steel, the Arkansas Derby runner-up, makes his Derby Watch debut at 25-1. Endlessly, the Jeff Ruby Steaks winner who has never raced on dirt, is now under consideration for the Kentucky Derby and listed at 30-1. Catalytic, the Florida Derby runner-up, joins the list at 40-1. Uncle Heavy returns to the list at 50-1.

WHO’S NOT

Timberlake is one of four prominent runners off the Derby trail following subpar efforts. Fourth at even-money in the Arkansas Derby, Timberlake will skip the Derby and cut back in distance, according to trainer Brad Cox. The news was first reported this week by Mary Rampellini on DRF.com. Other drop-offs are Conquest Warrior and Hades, fourth and fifth, respectively, in the Florida Derby. Liberal Arts, sixth (placed eighth) in the Arkansas Derby, also is off the trail.

Arkansas Derby third-place finisher Mystik Dan remains a Kentucky Derby candidate after he was compromised by a wide trip in the Arkansas Derby. Mystik Dan’s odds drift to 20-1. Muth, the Arkansas Derby winner, is not eligible to the Kentucky Derby.

ON THE BUBBLE

Grand Mo the First, third in the Tampa Bay Derby and Florida Derby, has 40 points to rank 16th among Derby candidates on the points list. The top 18 are insured a Derby berth. El Grande O, whose 30 points rank 19th, runs Saturday at Aqueduct in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. Uncle Heavy, with 20 points, also runs in the Wood.

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