Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 26, 2023

WHO’S HOT

Jace’s Road might seem curious as a “Who’s Hot.” After all, he is a 50-1 outsider by Derby Watch linemaker David Aragona and finished a fading third in the Louisiana Derby despite easy fractions. The reason Jace’s Road is hot is the Kentucky Derby defection of Blazing Sevens, which allows Jace’s Road into the field. He has 45 qualifying points, the same as Skinner and Cyclone Mischief. Jace’s Road wins the tiebreaker, which is non-restricted stakes earnings.

Jace’s Road gives trainer Brad Cox four Derby starters, the most this year from one stable. Cox’s Derby contingent includes top contender Angel of Empire and longshots Jace’s Road, Hit Show, and Verifying. Todd Pletcher has three points-qualified Derby candidates in Forte, Tapit Trice, and Kingsbarns. Pletcher’s fourth Derby candidate, Major Dude, is No. 23 on the leaderboard.

Javier Castellano, Hall of Fame jockey and four-time Eclipse Award winner, picked up a live mount in search of his first Kentucky Derby in his 16th try. Castellano, initially scheduled to ride longshot Raise Cain, jumped this week to Florida Derby runner-up Mage.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2023: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

WHO’S NOT

Blazing Sevens, third in the Blue Grass, will skip the Derby, trainer Chad Brown said in a Daily Racing Form story by David Grening: “I just feel this horse ran out of time really to develop to get to that race with a good chance to be competitive, meaning I’m looking to have a chance to win or be in the top three. He’s a race behind where he needs to be.”

Blazing Sevens, Grade 1 Champagne winner and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, could target the Preakness.

Skinner, a wide-trip third in the Santa Anita Derby, continues to train forwardly at Santa Anita. He worked a half-mile just nine days after he ran, and wheeled back six days later with a strong six-furlong drill on April 23. However, time is running out. Skinner is 21st on the Derby leaderboard; only 20 can start. As of early April 26, Skinner still needs one defection to make the field. Kentucky Derby entries will be taken May 1.

ON THE BUBBLE

Skinner and Cyclone Mischief, currently ranked 21 and 22, are first and second preferences into the Derby field. They are followed by these horses ranked 23-25, in preference order: Major Dude, Mandarin Hero, and King Russell. Churchill Downs allows up to four also-eligible entrants in the Kentucky Derby.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.