Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 2, 2025

WHO’S HOT

Tappan Street and Sandman won Grade 1 races March 29; their Derby Watch odds subsequently dropped. Tappan Street won the Florida Derby in just his third career start; Sandman took advantage of a blistering pace to win the Arkansas Derby. Tappan Street drops to 10-1, co-third choice. Sandman was lowered to 12-1 by Daily Racing Form linemaker David Aragona.

Two new names emerged, neither has won in the United States. Luxor Cafe, based in Japan, won the Fukuryu Stakes to clinch a Derby berth via the Japan Road to the Derby series. Luxor Cafe opens at 15-1; his Derby status was unconfirmed as of early Wednesday. Publisher, a maiden, rallied to second in the Arkansas Derby. Virtually guaranteed a Derby berth with 60 points, Publisher opens at 30-1. Some 12 maidens have run in the Kentucky Derby since 1937, and none hit the board, according to Churchill Downs. The maiden Brokers Tip won the 1933 Derby.

WHO’S NOT

Sovereignty ran okay finishing second as the Florida Derby favorite, compromised by tepid fractions, a wide draw, and discomfort with the Gulfstream Park surface. Sovereignty’s odds drift to 10-1. Disruptor, expected to contest the Florida Derby pace, was eliminated. He was squeezed at the break, lost position, trailed, and rallied to fifth. Big effort actually, but worth just 10 points.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2025: Top contenders, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

Coal Battle made an early move into a hot pace in the Arkansas Derby and flattened to third. He ran his final furlong in 13.99 seconds; his odds jump to 20-1. Coal Battle’s career-high 91 Beyer is modest. Cornucopian, odds-on in the Arkansas Derby, engaged in a suicidal duel and tired to fourth. The 45.21-second opening half was the fastest this century in the Arkansas Derby.

ON THE BUBBLE

Flood Zone drops from the Top 20. He runs Saturday in the Group 2 U.A.E. Derby in Dubai, after which his Kentucky Derby status will be re-evaluated. Final Gambit’s plans are uncertain; the Kentucky Derby would be the first dirt start for the Jeff Ruby Steaks winner. Neoequos, third in the Florida Derby, has earned 40 points. Three others on the bubble run Saturday in Grade 1s – Grande and Sand Devil in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, Baeza in the Santa Anita Derby.

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